科技日报-美股盘前-20260529

TMT BREAKOUTMAY 29, 2026∙PAID Good morning. Futures flattish. Oil -1.4%. Not a ton on the macro/geopolitical frontovernight. 早上好。期货⾛势平稳。原油下跌1.4%。隔夜宏观/地缘政治层⾯消息不多。 Asia mixed although many AI names in Korea and abroad ripped: TPX +1.41%, NKY+2.53%, Hang Seng +0.7%, HSCEI +0.73%, SHCOMP -0.73%, Shenzhen -1.9%,Taiwan TAIEX +2.51%, Korea KOSPI +3.55%. Samsung +8%; Hynix +4%; Softbank+5% 亚洲市场涨跌互现，尽管韩国及海外的许多AI相关股⼤涨：东证指数(TPX)+1.41%，⽇经指数(NKY) +2.53%，恒⽣指数+0.7%，恒⽣中国企业指数(HSCEI) +0.73%，上证综指(SHCOMP) -0.73%，深证成指-1.9%，台湾加权指数(TAIEX) +2.51%，韩国综合指数(KOSPI) +3.55%。三星+8%；海⼒⼠+4%；软银+5%。 In Tech, Semis and software both up ~1% early while Internet lags. 科技股⽅⾯，半导体和软件板块早盘均上涨~1%，⽽互联⽹板块表现滞后。 We’ll hit upMDBandDELLfirst then get to the usual.We’ll haveOKTA/NTAPrecapsin the Slack. 我们将先重点关注MDB和DELL，然后再讨论常规内容。我们将在Slack中发布OKTA/NTAP的回顾。 MDB +3%: Solid beat-and-raise, led by Atlasconsumption and a better EA quarter, but narrativedebate is now whether EA growth can outweigh AtlasDecel MDB +3%：业绩稳健且上调了指引，主要受Atlas消耗量和表现更佳的EA季度所带动，但⽬前的叙事争论点在于EA的增⻓是否⾜以抵消Atlas的增速放缓。 Overall, print was solid with Atlas 29% slightly missing 30% bogey but above street of26%.Q2 Atlas guide 26% vs bogeys of 25%.Wild ride in the aftermarket last night asstock went from down 20% on the print as Atlas was slightly below bogeys, thenrallied 45% in 20 minutes as Q2 came above, then sold down as CFO’s forwardcommentary wasn’t received well:“We would encourage you to not expect largeswings vs guidance for the current quarter as changes in consumption into quarteronly have a modest impact on revenue within the period.” 总体⽽⾔，财报表现稳健，Atlas增⻓29%，略低于30%的预期⽬标，但⾼于市场预期的26%。第⼆季度Atlas指引为26%，⽽预期⽬标为25%。昨晚盘后股价经历了⼤起⼤落：财报发布后因Atlas略低于预期⽬标，股价⼀度下跌20%；随后因第⼆季度指引超出预期，在20分钟内反弹了45%；接着⼜因⾸席财务官（CFO）的前瞻性评论未获市场认可⽽回落，其原话为：“我们建议⼤家不要期望本季度会出现⼤幅超出指引的情况，因为季度内消耗量的变化对当期收⼊的影响较为有限。” Some debate around exactly what he meant but largely consensus taking it to melikely a smaller beat than Q1 and more in the Q4 range of a 2% Atlas beat which would imply 28%.All-in all we don’t think the numbers set up is all that bad as it would implyAtlas growth will only decel from 29% to 28% over the course of 2 quarter whencomps got 5ppts tougher. 关于他这番话的确切含义存在⼀些争论，但共识⼤多倾向于认为：第⼆季度的超预期幅度可能⼩于第⼀季度，更接近第四季度约2%的Atlas超预期⽔平，这意味着实际增⻓可能在28%左右。总的来说，我们认为数据层⾯的设定并不算太糟，因为这意味着在对⽐基数提⾼5个百分点的情况下，Atlas的增⻓在两个季度内仅从29%放缓⾄28%。 The comp flattens out after this quarter, so it’s possible we see a re-accel in Q3 tosomething with a 3-handle when street is expecting a decel to low 20s and guide for23-25% for the full year. 本季度过后，对⽐基数将趋于平稳，因此在市场预期增速将放缓⾄20%出头、且全年指引为23-25%的背景下，我们有可能在第三季度看到增速重新回升⾄30%以上。 Overall, we think this was a solid print, the stock’s likely path is up, and the set upgoing forward is decent to good, but think narrative around DDOG and SNOW better inthe AI consumption space. 总体⽽⾔，我们认为这是⼀份稳健的财报，股价很可能⾛⾼，且未来的势头处于“尚佳⾄良好”之间。但在AI消费领域，我们认为围绕DDOG和SNOW的叙事更具吸引⼒。 The #s: Q1:Revenue was$687.6M, +25.2% y/y (last q +26.7% y/y) vs Street$664.5M, +~21%,with Atlas$512.5M, +29.4% y/y (last q +29.2%) vs Street ~$499M, +~26%. Non-GAAP EPS was$1.32 vs Street$1.19, and FCF was$197.5M, 28.7% margin vs Street~$125M 第⼀季度：营收为6.876亿美元，同⽐增⻓25.2%（上季度同⽐增⻓26.7%），⾼于市场预期的6.645亿美元（约+21%）；其中Atlas营收为5.125亿美元，同⽐增⻓29.4%（上季度为29.2%），⾼于市场预期的~4.99亿美元（约+26%）。Non-GAAP每股收益为1.32美元，⾼于市场预期的1.19美元；⾃由现⾦流（FCF）为1.975亿美元，利润率为28.7%，⾼于市场预期的~1.25亿美元。 Q2:Rrevenue guide of$729–$734M, +23–24% y/y vs Street ~$700.5M, +~18.5% wasmeaningfully ahead, while FY27 revenue guide was raised to$2.92–$2.96B, +19–20%y/y vs Street ~$2.89–$2.90B, +~17–18% 第⼆季度：营收指引为7.29亿⾄7.34亿美元，同⽐增⻓23-24%，显著⾼于市场预期的~7.005亿美元（约+18.5%）；同时，2027财年营收指引上调⾄29.2亿⾄29.6亿美元，同⽐增⻓19-20%，⾼于市场预期的~28.9亿⾄29.0亿美元（约+17-18%）。 FY27Atlas growth guide was raised to 23–25% from 21–23% 2027财年Atlas增⻓指引从21-23%上调⾄23-25%。 Key Takeaways: Mgmt highlighted frontier labs, AI-native customers, Voyage customers more thandoubling q/q, MCP usage growing significantly, and vector search adoption faroutpacing company growth. Still, mgmt said current results are driven primarily bycore workloads, not AI. 管理层强调了前沿实验室、AI原⽣客户、Voyage客户数量环⽐增⻓⼀倍以上、MCP使⽤量显著增⻓，以及向量搜索的采⽤速度远超公司整体增速。尽管如此，管理层表示⽬前的业绩主要由核⼼⼯作负载驱动，⽽⾮AI。 EA & Other grew 13% y/y, with EA/Other ARR up ~11%, and Q2 EA/Other is guidedto ~20% y/y due to ARR momentum and large multiyear deals. This is imptbecause bears historically focused on Atlas only, while bulls now have a secondpillar in EA, hybrid deployments, and federal. EA及其他业务同⽐增⻓13%，其中EA/其他ARR增⻓~11%，且由于ARR势头和⼤型多年期订单，第⼆季度EA/其他业务指引为同⽐增⻓~20%。这⼀点⾮常重要，因为看空者历来只关注Atlas，⽽看多者现在拥有了EA、混合部署和联邦业务作为第⼆⽀柱。 Non-GAAP OM was 17.9% vs Street ~16.4%, FCF margin was 28.7%, and FY27guidance targets 20% revenue growth and 20% OM at the high end, implying Ruleof 40. Non-GAAP运营利润率为17.9%，⾼于市场预期的~16.4%，⾃由现⾦流（FCF）利润率为28.7%，2027财年指引⽬标为营收增⻓20%且运营利润率⾼端达到20%，这意味着达到了40法则（Rule of 40）。 In the callback, mgmt emphasized that the majority of Atlas strength came fromcore enterprise workloads, while frontier labs and AI natives are beginning tocontribute. 在电话回访中，管理层强调Atlas