科技日报 0508美股盘前-20260511

TMT BREAKOUTMAY 08, 2026∙PAID Futures +80bps to start this beautiful Friday morning as the market brushes up aflareup in tensions between US and Iran overnight (fire was exchanged around SoH)but ceasefire remains intact and Trump called it “just a love tap.” What a poet. 在这个美好的周五早晨，期货开盘上涨80个基点。市场正淡化隔夜美伊紧张局势的升级（霍尔⽊兹海峡附近发⽣了交⽕），但停⽕协议依然稳固，特朗普称其“只是轻轻⼀吻”。真是⼀位诗⼈。 Asia mixed: TPX -0.29%, NKY -0.19%, Hang Seng -0.87%, HSCEI -0.34%, SHCOMPflat, Shenzhen +0.12%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.79%, Korea KOSPI +0.11%.Samsung/SkHynix +2%continue to rally. 亚洲市场涨跌互现：东证指数-0.29%，⽇经指数-0.19%，恒⽣指数-0.87%，恒⽣中国企业指数-0.34%，上证综指持平，深证成指+0.12%，台湾加权指数-0.79%，韩国综合指数+0.11%。三星和SK海⼒⼠继续反弹，涨幅均超过2%。 In tech land,HUBS-22% blow up showing app sw not in same league as consumptionsw afterDDOG’sbeat yesterday,AKAMrallying on a big deal,NETdown on anexpects miss,MCHPthe latest analog to beat,CRWVdown on a weaker guide, ABNBlooks solid, QCOM continues to squeeze the shorts, and more. Outside of that, AIsemis strong early withSNDK +4% / MU +3%leading the way higher. 科技股⽅⾯，HUBS暴跌22%，表明在昨⽇DDOG业绩超预期后，应⽤软件与消费型软件并不在同⼀量级；AKAM因达成重⼤交易⽽反弹；NET因预期未达标⽽下跌；MCHP是最新⼀家业绩超预期的模拟芯⽚公司；CRWV因指引疲软⽽下跌；ABNB表现稳健；QCOM继续逼空。此外，AI半导体板块早盘⾛强，SNDK +4%和MU +3%领涨。 We’ll cover earnings first then get to the usual. 我们将先分析财报，然后再进⼊常规内容。 NET -15%: Revenue beat on Revs, but Q2 guide only inlinewith street and missed bogeys. Surprise ~20% RIF, grossmargin compression, DBNRR/RPO deceleration andtougher comps ahead NET -15%：营收超出预期，但第⼆季度指引仅与市场预期持平，且未达买⽅预期（bogeys）。意外宣布约20%的裁员（RIF）、⽑利率收窄、净⾦额留存率（DBNRR）/剩余履约义务（RPO）增速放缓，且未来⾯临更严峻的同⽐基数压⼒。 Top line numbers looked fine for the quarter with a beat of ~3%, about in line for thelast several quarters, but the GM miss and DBNRR/RPO decel a bit concerning. 本季度营收数据看起来尚可，超出预期约3%，与过去⼏个季度的表现基本⼀致，但⽑利率未达标以及DBNRR/RPO的减速令⼈担忧。 Still not all was bad: huge workers adds, customer adds strong, raised FY guide on aQ1 print for first time in 3 years, new customer bookings highest since 2023, pipelinegeneration fastest sequential growth in five years, and gross retention highest in fouryear.Call sounded bullish with mgmt talking up AI agentic tailwinds. 但并⾮全是坏消息：员⼯⼈数⼤幅增加，客户增⻓强劲，三年来⾸次在第⼀季度财报中上调全年指引，新客户预订量创2023年以来新⾼，管道⽣成（pipeline generation）创五年来最快环⽐增⻓，且⽑留存率达到四年来最⾼⽔平。电话会议听起来偏向⽜市，管理层⼤谈AI智能体（AI agentic）带来的利好。 In terms of optics, what’s concerning for us is that you have a period of toughercomps ahead where it’s possible to see NET revs decel back to ~30% or lower range after a period of easier comps when revs were accelerating: 从表⾯上看，令我们担忧的是，在经历了⼀段营收加速增⻓的低基数时期后，未来将⾯临更严峻的同⽐基数，NET的营收增速可能会回落⾄30%左右或更低⽔平： Despite NET having one of the strongest Agentic AI tailwinds and Workers momentumremains strong (1M adds in Q1 alone vs 1. 5M in all of 2025; large customer additions strong), we typically don’t like to beinvolved in a high multiple stock when revs are likely going to decelerate/flat line in theupcoming quarters, especially on the back of several quarters of acceleration and a qwith some mixed metrics. We are still biased long, but we sold our small position last night and we’ll wait forstock to digest before a potential better set up/entry for a long. Overall - stockdeserves to be down on expects miss, but underlying numbers still strong and wethink bull case remains intact. The #s: 1Q26 revenue was$639.8M, +33.5% y/y (last q +33.6%) vs Street$620.8M,+~29.6%, and EPS was$0.25 vs Street$0.23. Gross margin was the weak spot at72.8% vs Street ~75.1%-75.2%, while FCF was better than expected at$84.1M, 13% margin. 2026年第⼀季度营收为6.398亿美元，同⽐增⻓33.5%（上季度为+33.6%），⾼于市场预期的6.208亿美元（约+29.6%）；每股收益（EPS）为0.25美元，⾼于市场预期的0.23美元。⽑利率是薄弱环节，为72.8%，低于市场预期的约75.1%-75.2%；⽽⾃由现⾦流（FCF）好于预期，为8410万美元，利润率为13%。 2Q26 guide was$664M-$665M, +~29.7% y/y vs Street ~$663M, +~29.4%, andFY26 revenue guide was raised to$2.805B-$2.813B, +~30% y/y vs Street~$2.790B, +~28.7%. 2026财年第⼆季度指引为6.64亿⾄6.65亿美元，同⽐增⻓约29.7%，⽽市场预期约为6.63亿美元，同⽐增⻓约29.4%；2026财年全年营收指引上调⾄28.05亿⾄28.13亿美元，同⽐增⻓约30%，⽽市场预期约为27.90亿美元，同⽐增⻓约28.7%。 Key Takeaways: Mgmt framed agentic AI as a tailwind across Act 1, Act 2 and Act 3: more agenticrequests for application traffic, more need for fine-grained data access in ZeroTrust/SASE, and more developer demand for Workers. Workers added 1Mdevelopers in 1Q alone, bringing the platform to 5.5M+ developers, versus 1.5Madditions in all of 2025. 管理层将代理式AI（Agentic AI）视为贯穿第⼀阶段、第⼆阶段和第三阶段的利好因素：应⽤流量中出现了更多代理请求，Zero Trust/SASE中对细粒度数据访问的需求增加，以及开发者对Workers的需求⽇益增⻓。仅在第⼀季度，Workers就增加了100万名开发者，使平台开发者总数超过550万，⽽2025全年仅增加了150万。 Agentic traffic was described as growing exponentially, with January doubling andApril reaching hundreds of billions of requests; this is already pulling demand intorequest-cap increases, bot management, and legacy application/securityproducts. 代理流量被描述为呈指数级增⻓，1⽉份翻了⼀番，4⽉份达到数千亿次请求；这已经带动了对请求上限提升、机器⼈管理（Bot Management）以及传统应⽤/安全产品的需求。 Customers paying >$100K reached 4,416, +25% y/y, and revenue from thatcohort grew 38% y/y, contributing 72% of revenue vs 69% y/y. Deals over$1Mgrew 73% y/y, and NET added as many$5M+