科技日报-美股盘前-20260519

TMT BREAKOUTMAY 19, 2026∙PAID Good morning.Futures -65bpswith semis -1.6% early while software +1% continuesto squeeze, led byNOW +5%, TEAM +4%, SNOW/MDB +3%, ZS +3.5%(laggardscontinue to catch a bid here).Looks like more pain for the momentum basket early.Memory names lower (WDC/STX/SNDK -3%) as well as Neoclouds given theGOOGL/BX news. 早上好。股指期货下跌65个基点，半导体板块早盘下跌1.6%，⽽软件板块上涨1%并继续挤压空头，其中NOW上涨5%，TEAM上涨4%，SNOW/MDB上涨3%，ZS上涨3.5%（落后股在此继续获得买盘⽀撑）。早盘动量股组合（momentum basket）似乎⾯临更多压⼒。受GOOGL/BX消息影响，存储芯⽚股（WDC/STX/SNDK下跌3%）以及次新云（Neoclouds）表现低迷。 Asiamixed: TPX +0.63%, NKY -0.44%, Hang Seng +0.48%, HSCEI +0.49%, SHCOMP+0.92%, Shenzhen +0.51%, Taiwan TAIEX -1.75%, Korea KOSPI -3.25%.SK Hynix-6%, Samsung -2%. Oilflattish.Yieldsup 3-4bps across the curve. 亚洲市场涨跌互现：东证指数（TPX）+0.63%，⽇经指数（NKY）-0.44%，恒⽣指数+0.48%，恒⽣中国企业指数（HSCEI）+0.49%，上证综指（SHCOMP）+0.92%，深证成指+0.51%，台湾加权指数（TAIEX）-1.75%，韩国综合指数（KOSPI）-3.25%。SK海⼒⼠下跌6%，三星下跌2%。原油价格持平。各期限收益率上升3-4个基点。 JPM TMT continues today, including OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan,ANET, ALAB, DDOG, NOK, NOW, QCOM, GLW among others 摩根⼤通（JPM）TMT⼤会今天继续举⾏，参会嘉宾包括OpenAI⾸席财务官Sarah Friar、INTC⾸席执⾏官Lip-Bu Tan，以及ANET、ALAB、DDOG、 NOK、NOW、QCOM、GLW等公司。 GOOGL I/O officially starts today GOOGL I/O⼤会今天正式开幕 GOOGL: Google and Blackstone to Create New AI CloudCompany GOOGL：⾕歌与⿊⽯集团将成⽴新AI云计算公司 WSJ: The duo said Monday they plan to launch the unnamed U.S. company with$5billion in equity capital from Blackstone, confirming an earlier report by The WallStreet Journal. 双⽅周⼀表示，计划成⽴这家尚未命名的美国公司，⿊⽯集团将提供50亿美元的股权资本，这证实了《华尔街⽇报》此前的报道。 The venture, the biggestattempt yet by Googleto sell and monetize its own chipsto external parties, will sharpen a rivalry withNvidia, the market leader in AIcomputing. 该合资企业是⾕歌迄今为⽌向外部各⽅销售其⾃研芯⽚并实现货币化的最⼤尝试，这将加剧其与AI计算市场领导者Nvidia的竞争。 The new company aims in 2027 to bring 500 megawatts of capacity online—roughly the same amount of electric power required to serve a midsize city—andsubstantially increase capacity over time, Google and Blackstone said. ⾕歌和⿊⽯集团表示，新公司的⽬标是在2027年上线500兆瓦的容量⸺这⼤约相当于⼀个中型城市的⽤电量⸺并随着时间的推移⼤幅增加容量。 JPM Conference Day 2 Schedule: 摩根⼤通会议第⼆天⽇程： AI Networking/ALAB/MRVL/NVDA: ISI Checks RemainPositive on NVDA, MRVL, and ALAB AI⽹络/ALAB/MRVL/NVDA：ISI的调研结果对NVDA、MRVL和ALAB维持正⾯评价 ISI says AI networking checks remain strong, with scale-out demand still supplyconstrained and hyperscaler architectures increasingly converging toward opticalinterconnects/CPO over time. ISI表示，AI⽹络调研显示需求依然强劲，横向扩展（scale-out）需求仍受供应限制，且超⼤规模云⼚商的架构正⽇益向光互连/CPO⽅向趋同。 The firm continues to view NVDA as the dominant scale-up ecosystem viaNVLink/NVLink Fusion, with Spectrum CPO deployments potentially reaching 150K–300K units by 2027 and broader CPO adoption accelerating into 2027–28. 该机构继续将NVDA视为通过NVLink/NVLink Fusion实现的纵向扩展（scale-up）⽣态系统的主导者，Spectrum CPO的部署量到2027年可能达到15万⾄30万个，⽽更⼴泛的CPO采⽤将在2027-28年加速。 ISI also sees MRVL benefiting from rising 800G/1.6T DSP share gains and growinghyperscaler/NPO demand, while ALAB continues gaining credibility through strongexecution/customer support and increasing scale-up switch demand through 2027. ISI还认为MRVL将受益于800G/1.6T DSP市场份额的提升以及超⼤规模运营商/NPO需求的增⻓；同时，ALAB凭借强⼤的执⾏⼒/客户⽀持，以及到2027年不断增⻓的Scale-up交换机需求，其信誉度也在持续增强。 AI Compute: ISI Says Inference/ASIC Shift IsAccelerating While NVDA’s Moat Faces More Pressure atthe High-End AI计算：ISI表示推理/ASIC转型正在加速，⽽NVDA的护城河在⾼端市场⾯临更⼤压⼒ Great note with a lot of tidbits — worth a full read… ⾮常棒的笔记，包含⼤量细节——值得通读全⽂…… ISI says AI workloads are rapidly shifting from training-heavy deployments towardinference-led compute by late 2026, increasing focus on cost-per-token, utilization,and TCO while accelerating hyperscaler interest in custom ASICs and alternativeaccelerators. ISI表示，到2026年底，AI⼯作负载正迅速从以训练为主的部署转向以推理为主的计算，这使得市场更加关注单位Token成本、利⽤率和总拥有成本（TCO），同时也加速了超⼤规模运营商对定制ASIC和替代加速器的兴趣。 The firm still views NVDA as the ecosystem leader with durable training share, butbelieves inference share could fall toward ~50% by 2028 as AMD, TPU, Trainium,Maia, and SRAM-centric architectures improve. 该机构仍将NVDA视为拥有持久训练市场份额的⽣态系统领导者，但认为随着AMD、TPU、Trainium、Maia以及以SRAM为中⼼的架构不断改进，到2028年其推理市场份额可能会降⾄50%左右。 ISI also highlights growing interest in agentic AI-specific chips optimized for low-latency/multi-agent workloads, while noting NVDA’s software moat remains importanteven as hyperscalers/frontier labs become increasingly capable of optimizing aroundcompeting architectures. ISI还强调，市场对针对低延迟/多智能体⼯作负载优化的智能体AI（agenticAI）专⽤芯⽚的兴趣⽇益浓厚；同时指出，尽管超⼤规模企业/前沿实验室在优化竞争架构⽅⾯的能⼒⽇益增强，但NVDA的软件护城河依然⾄关重要。 GPUs: Hearing Edgewater positive saying server buildsbiased higher for CY26 on Supply Shifts and outlookstrengthening through CY27+. Raises NVDA numbers as Rubing still expected materially contribute to Q2 despitedelays. GPU：听闻Edgewater持乐观态度，称受供应转移影响，2026⽇历年服务器构建量偏⾼，且2027⽇历年及以后的前景正在加强。上调NVDA业绩预期，因为尽管有所延迟，但预计Rubin仍将在第⼆季度做出实质性贡献。 SNDK: Citi Raises PT Sharply on Strong NAND Pricing,LTAs, and AI-Driven Demand SNDK：由于NAND价格强劲、⻓期协议（LTA）以及AI驱动的需求，花旗⼤幅上调其⽬标价。 Citi raises SNDK PT to$2,025 from