科技日报美股盘前20260707

TMT BREAKOUTJUL 07, 2026∙PAID Good morning.QQQs -85bps / SPX -10bps / Russell +50bpsas factor/mo volcontinues.Yields higher this morning as market continues to price in 30bps worth ofrate hikes in ’26.Semis -3.5%leading the way lower whileSoftware +1.2% /Internet +50bpsgetting a bid.HDDs/Memorydown 4-5%; CPU namesARM/INTC/AMD-4%; Semicap -4%. 早安。QQQ指数下跌85个基点/标普500指数下跌10个基点/罗素2000指数上涨50个基点，因⼦/动量波动率持续运⾏。今早收益率⾛⾼，市场继续对2026年30个基点的加息幅度进⾏定价。半导体板块下跌3.5%领跌，⽽软件板块上涨1.2%/互联⽹板块上涨50个基点获买盘⽀撑。硬盘/内存板块下跌4-5%；CPU类股ARM/英特尔/AMD下跌4%；半导体设备板块下跌4%。 Overnight,Asiawas mainly red: TPX-0.97%,NKY-2.12%,Hang Seng-0.51%,HSCEI-0.54%,SHCOMP-1.26%,Shenzhen-1.92%,Taiwan TAIEX-2.31%,Korea KOSPI-4.91%.KOSPI hit circuit breakers as vol continues with memory names downsignificantly following Samsung’s lighter than expected #s:Samsung -9%; SK Hynix-8%; Kioxia -11%. 隔夜亚洲市场主要收跌：东证指数下跌0.97%，⽇经225指数下跌2.12%，恒⽣指数下跌0.51%，国企指数下跌0.54%，上证综指下跌1.26%，深证成指下跌1.92%，台湾加权指数下跌2.31%，韩国KOSPI指数下跌4.91%。KOSPI指数触发熔断，波动持续，内存股在三星业绩低于预期后⼤幅下挫：三 Let’s get straight to it… 我们直接进⼊正题…… Samsung: Samsung 2Q26 prelims comes in a shy ofbuyside expects 三星：三星2026年第⼆季度初步业绩低于买⽅预期。 Revenue W171tn (+28% q-q / +129% y-y) vs street at W169tn and buysidelooking for W174Tn+ and OP W89.4tn, 6% ahead of street. Revenue beat only 1%vs street vs 7% last q, and average of 3% over the past 4 quarters. Op profit beatof 6% was lowest in over 8 quarters. 营收171万亿韩元（环⽐+28%/同⽐+129%），市场预期为169万亿韩元，买⽅预期为174万亿韩元以上，营业利润89.4万亿韩元，⽐市场预期⾼出6%。营收仅超出市场预期1%，⽽上季为7%，过去四个季度平均超出3%。营业利润超出6%是⼋个多季度以来的最低⽔平。 DRAM/NAND drove the beat as expected: DRAM ASPs ~+45% q-q (bits +12%),NAND ASPs ~+57% q-q (bits +3%), on server DRAM and eSSD demand. DRAM/NAND如预期推动业绩增⻓：服务器DRAM和eSSD需求带动DRAM均价达1001#，环⽐上涨45%（⽐特出货量+12%），NAND均价达1002#，环⽐上涨57%（⽐特出货量+3%）。 Everything else was soft: foundry/LSI remained loss-making (deficit wider afterbonuses), display profitability fell on pricing despite better-than-expectedshipments, and MX swung to a loss as memory cost inflation hit with a lag —handset price hikes look likely in 2H (peers expected to raise 15–25%). 其他业务表现疲软：晶圆代⼯/LSI持续亏损（奖⾦发放后亏损扩⼤），显示器业务因定价压⼒导致盈利能⼒下滑（尽管出货量好于预期），MX业务因存储成本滞后上涨⽽转为亏损⸺预计下半年⼿机将提价（同业预计涨幅为15–25%）。 Commodity DRAM/NAND prices seen up another 15–20% q-q in 3Q beforegrowth moderates as LTAs expand; HBM margins expected to converge up towardcommodity DRAM. Supply stays tight through at least 2027. 通⽤DRAM/NAND价格预计三季度环⽐再涨15–20%，之后随着⻓期协议（LTA）扩张涨幅放缓；HBM利润率预计将逐步趋近通⽤DRAM⽔平。供应紧张局⾯⾄少持续到2027年。 Historical beats:历史⾛势： NET: Scotiabank Upgrades to Outperform, Says AI andEnterprise Momentum Create Attractive Entry Point NET：加拿⼤丰业银⾏上调评级⾄"跑赢⼤盘"，称AI与企业业务势头创造吸引⼒进场点 Scotiabank upgraded Cloudflare to Outperform from Sector Perform and raised itsprice target to$300 from$225, arguing the company’s AI and enterprise executionwarrant owning the stock. 加拿⼤丰业银⾏将Cloudflare评级从"⾏业⼀致"上调⾄"跑赢⼤盘"，并将⽬标股价从225美元上调⾄300美元，认为该公司在AI和企业业务⽅⾯的执⾏⼒⾜以⽀撑其股票价值。 The firm sees Cloudflare increasingly winning leading AI-native customers whilerecent CIO/CISO channel checks point to strengthening traction in SASE and edgecompute, reinforcing confidence that enterprise adoption is accelerating. 该公司认为Cloudflare正越来越多地赢得领先的AI原⽣客户，⽽近期对CIO/CISO的渠道调查显示，其在SASE和边缘计算领域的市场渗透⼒正在增强，这进⼀步强化了企业级应⽤正在加速推进的信⼼。 Scotiabank believes this combination of AI leadership and improving enterprisemomentum supports a more constructive outlook for growth and shares. 加拿⼤丰业银⾏认为，这种AI领导地位与企业级市场势头改善的结合，为增⻓和股价提供了更具建设性的前景。 APP: Wells Fargo Sees Softer 2Q Gaming Trends butMaintains Overweight APP：富国银⾏认为第⼆季度游戏⾏业趋势疲软，但维持增持评级 Wells Fargo expects AppLovin’s 2Q upside to be more modest than in recent quartersas mobile gaming checks point to weaker ROAS from CPI inflation, maturingoptimization gains, and app user acquisition share plateauing around 45%. Webadvertising trends remain stable but lack a meaningful acceleration. 富国银⾏预计，AppLovin第⼆季度的业绩增⻓将⽐近⼏个季度更为温和，原因是移动游戏渠道调查显示，CPI通胀导致⼴告⽀出回报率（ROAS）⾛弱，优化收益趋于成熟，且应⽤⽤户获取份额在45%左右趋于稳定。⽹络⼴告趋势保持稳定，但缺乏显著加速。 Despite lowering its FY26 web advertising revenue forecast by 10%, Wells Fargomodestly increased game revenue estimates, reiterated its Overweight rating, andraised its price target to$575 from$571, arguing the long-term thesis remains intactdespite a tougher near-term setup. 尽管富国银⾏将2026财年⽹络⼴告收⼊预测下调10%，但适度上调了游戏收⼊预期，维持"增持"评级并将⽬标股价从571美元上调⾄575美元。该机构认为，尽管短期⾯临挑战，⻓期投资逻辑依然成⽴。 FSLR: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy, Sees PullbackCreating Attractive Entry Ahead of Section 232 Clarity FSLR：德银上调⾄"买⼊"评级，认为近期回调在232条款明朗前创造了诱⼈⼊场机会 Deutsche Bank upgraded First Solar to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to$272 from$202, arguing the recent ~27% pullback has created an attractive entrypoint ahead of expected policy clarity. 德意志银⾏将第⼀太阳能评级从"持有"上调⾄"买⼊"，⽬标价从202美元上调⾄272美元。该机构认为，近期27%的回调在贸易政策明朗化前创造了富有吸引⼒的⼊场时机。 The firm believes investors are underappreciating the combination of a normalized2027 earnings profile, a strong net cash balance sheet, and potential upside fromSection 232 tariff clarifications, which could strengthen the