科技日报-美股盘前-20260617

TMT BREAKOUTJUN 17, 2026∙PAID Good morning.Nas Futures +50bpsasSemis +1.8%leading the way higher afterthe sell off yesterday. All eyes on Warsh’s first meeting at the Fed this afternoon. InTech, Memory, semicap, and CPU names leading the way higher this morning(MU/SNDK +2-3%; INTC/AMD/ARM +2-3%). ⼤家早上好。纳斯达克期货上涨50个基点，半导体板块上涨1.8%，引领反弹，昨⽇抛售后回升。下午所有⼈的⽬光都集中在沃什在美联储的⾸次会议上。科技板块⽅⾯，存储器、半导体设备和CPU概念股今早领涨（MU/SNDK+2-3%；INTC/AMD/ARM +2-3%）。 Asia mixed: TPX+0.55%,NKY+0.72%,Hang Seng-0.74%,HSCEI-1.17%,SHCOMP+0.4%,Shenzhen+0.73%,Taiwan TAIEX+0.15%,Korea KOSPI+1.58%.SK Hynix+4%hitting new ATHs.Samsung flat. Kioxia+1%. 亚太股市涨跌互现：TPX +0.55%，NKY +0.72%，恒⽣指数-0.74%，HSCEI-1.17%，上证指数+0.4%，深圳成指+0.73%，台湾加权指数+0.15%，韩国KOSPI +1.58%。SK海⼒⼠上涨4%，创下历史新⾼。三星持平。铠侠上涨1%。 Let’s get straight to it… 直奔主题…… AVGO: JPM Says TPU Concerns Are Noise; GoogleProgram Remains on Track Through CY28 AVGO：摩根⼤通称TPU担忧纯属噪⾳；⾕歌项⽬进展顺利，将持续⾄2028财年 JPM argues recent concerns around delays or cancellation of Broadcom’s TPU v92nm program are unfounded, with checks indicating no delays and the TPU roadmapalready extending through at least the next four generations. 摩根⼤通认为，近期关于博通TPU v9 2nm项⽬延期或取消的担忧毫⽆根据，其调研显示并未出现延期，且TPU路线图已延伸⾄⾄少未来四代。 The firm estimates TPU v9 could drive ~$250-300M of incremental FY28 XPUrevenue and believes Broadcom is positioned to capture increasing TPU contentthrough 2031 under its expanded agreement with Google. 该公司预计TPU v9可能在2028财年为XPU业务带来约2.5亿⾄3亿美元的增量收⼊，并认为凭借与⾕歌的扩展协议，博通有望在2031年前获取越来越多的TPU份额。 While Google’s current TPU v8 (”Zebrafish”) program has experienced someoptimization challenges, JPM views this as strengthening Broadcom’s position bymaking Google less likely to diversify suppliers. 尽管⾕歌⽬前的TPU v8（“斑⻢⻥”）项⽬⾯临⼀些优化挑战，但摩根⼤通认为这反⽽巩固了博通的地位，因为⾕歌因此不太可能分散供应商。 More broadly, JPM argues investors continue to underappreciate Broadcom’scombination of advanced packaging, chip design expertise, and execution, whichshould allow it to remain a leading beneficiary of hyperscaler AI infrastructurespending for years to come. 更⼴泛来看，摩根⼤通认为投资者持续低估了博通在先进封装、芯⽚设计专业知识和执⾏⼒⽅⾯的综合优势，这应使其在未来多年内继续成为超⼤规模企业AI基础设施⽀出的主要受益者。 AVGO: Wolfe Says Anthropic Financing Clarity Removesa Key FY27 Overhang AVGO：Wolfe表示Anthropic融资⽅案的明晰消除了⼀个关键的2027财年悬⽽未决的因素 Wolfe believes investor concern following earnings centered on uncertainty aroundAnthropic’s ability to fund its FY26 AI infrastructure purchases, not demand. Wolfe认为财报后投资者的担忧主要集中在Anthropic资助其2026财年AI基础设施采购能⼒的不确定性，⽽⾮需求⽅⾯。 Management indicated the Apollo/Blackstone financing vehicle could support roughlytriple Anthropic’s AI XPU volume versus FY25 levels, implying an incremental ~$250-300M of FY26 XPU revenue, while AVGO also has residual value guarantees thatreduce financing risk. 管理层表示，Apollo/Blackstone的融资⼯具可⽀持的Anthropic AI XPU量约为2025财年⽔平的三倍，这意味着将为AVGO带来约2.5亿⾄3亿美元的2026财年XPU收⼊增量，同时AVGO还拥有剩余价值担保，从⽽降低了融资⻛险。 Wolfe argues that if the financing package is completed, the debate shifts away fromFY27 demand sustainability and toward continued AI shipment growth, removing a keyoverhang on the stock. Wolfe指出，若该融资⽅案完成，市场争论的焦点将从2027财年需求的可持续性转向AI发货量的持续增⻓，从⽽消除了该股的⼀个关键压制因素。 AMZN: Hearing 3p firm has latest AWS weekly y/y growth# in low 40s AMZN：听说第三⽅公司最新的AWS周度同⽐增⻓率处于40%出头的低位 CPUs: Bernstein Argues Agentic AI Creates a CPURenaissance and Expands the Server CPU TAM to$223B CPUs：Bernstein认为代理式AI将带来CPU复兴，并将服务器CPU的TAM扩⼤⾄2230亿美元 Bernstein argues the shift from chatbot AI to agentic AI fundamentally changes data-center architecture by making CPUs increasingly critical for orchestration, memorymanagement, networking, and agent coordination. Bernstein认为，从聊天机器⼈AI向代理式AI的转变根本性地改变了数据中⼼架构，使得CPU在编排、内存管理、⽹络和代理协调⽅⾯变得愈发关键。 The firm raises its 2030 server CPU TAM forecast to$223B from$137B, with its priorforecast now representing the bear case, and believes CPU-to-GPU ratios could movetoward 1:1 as inference workloads become more iterative and workflow-driven. 该公司将2030年服务器CPU的TAM预测从1370亿美元上调⾄2230亿美元，并将此前预测作为悲观情景；同时认为，随着推理⼯作负载变得更具迭代性和流程驱动，CPU与GPU的⽐例可能趋向于1:1。 Bernstein sees Arm as the primary beneficiary given its power-efficiency advantagesand growing hyperscaler adoption, while also raising its outlook for AMD, Intel,SoftBank, and Hygon as investors underestimate the magnitude and duration of thecoming server CPU cycle. 伯恩斯坦视Arm为主要受益者，鉴于其功耗优势以及超⼤规模云服务商采⽤率的提升，同时还上调了对AMD、Intel、软银和海光的前景预期，因为投资者低估了即将到来的服务器CPU周期的规模和持续时间。 ARM: Bernstein Sees a Much Larger MonetizationOpportunity Than Investors Model, raises PT to$500 ARM：伯恩斯坦认为货币化机会远超投资者模型，将⽬标股价上调⾄500美元 Beyond the larger CPU TAM, Bernstein argues investors are underestimating Arm’sability to capture value through both rising royalty rates and its new AGI CPU business.The firm now forecasts Arm’s AGI CPU revenue reaching$22B by FY31 versusmanagement’s$15B target, with silicon contributing roughly$7.7B of operating profit. 除了更⼤的CPU TAM（潜在市场总额），伯恩斯坦认为投资者低估了Arm通过不断提升版税税率及其全新的AGI CPU业务获取价值的能⼒。该公司⽬前预测，到2031财年，Arm的AGI CPU收⼊将达到220亿美元，⾼于管理层设定的150亿美元⽬标，其中芯⽚业务将贡献约77亿美元的营业利润。 Bernstein also expects cloud royal