科技日报 -美股盘前-20260429

TMT BREAKOUTAPR 29, 2026∙PAID Good morning.Futures +30bps.Yieldstickingdown 2-3bps.Oil +3%.Asiagenerally green: Hang Seng +1.68%, HSCEI +1.86%, SHCOMP +0.71%, Shenzhen+1.66%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.55%, Korea KOSPI +0.75%. Softbank -10% / Samsung +3% 早上好。期货上涨30个基点。收益率⼩幅下降2-3个基点。原油上涨3%。亚洲市场普遍收绿：恒⽣指数+1.68%，恒⽣中国企业指数+1.86%，上证综指+0.71%，深证成指+1.66%，台湾加权指数-0.55%，韩国综合指数+0.75%。软银-10% /三星+3%。 Some big moves in semi land following earnings withSTX +16%, NXPI +19%, BE+20%.STXhelpingWDC +10%and the memory names ahead of SNDK earnings(SNDK +7%; MU +5%). 财报发布后，半导体领域出现⼤幅波动，STX +16%，NXPI +19%，BE+20%。STX带动WDC上涨10%，存储板块在SNDK财报前⾛⾼（SNDK+7%；MU +5%）。 Big night tonight with META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL on the docket…should be a funtime in TMTB Slack. 今晚是重头戏，META、MSFT、AMZN、GOOGL都将发布财报……TMTBSlack频道⾥应该会很热闹。 We’ll touch on earnings first then get to the usual… 我们先来看财报，然后再进⼊常规内容…… EARNINGS STX +16%:Big and broad beat/raise, as narrativecontinues to shift further toward “structural AI storagegrowth + pricing power + HAMR margin expansion.” GMsthe standout STX +16%：业绩全⾯⼤幅超预期并上调指引，叙事逻辑继续向“结构性AI存储增⻓+定价权+ HAMR⽑利扩张”转移。⽑利率（GMs）表现尤为出⾊。 Not much to pick at here. A stellar print by STX and mgmt sounded bullish as usual onthe call. Buyside numbers here shifting to the bull case which is Low to mid 60s GMsand close to$45 in EPS for CY27. 这份财报⼏乎⽆可挑剔。STX的业绩表现惊⼈，管理层在电话会议上的发⾔也⼀如既往地乐观。买⽅预期正转向⽜市情景，即2027⽇历年⽑利率达到60%以上（Low to mid 60s），每股收益（EPS）接近45美元。 Bulls will say high teens/20x+ multiple on that given higher for longer structuralgrowth, better pricing/margin, and better industry dynamics (two players with rationalesupply) 看多者认为，考虑到更⻓期的结构性⾼增⻓、更优的定价/利润率以及更好的⾏业动态（两家主要⼚商且供应理性），该股应享有18-20倍以上的市盈率。 The #s: FQ3 revenue was$3.112B, +44.1% y/y (last q +21.5% y/y) vs Street$2.956B,+~36.9% y/y, with non-GAAP EPS$4.10 vs Street$3.50-$3.51 and non-GAAP GM47.0% vs Street ~44.3-44.6%. 第三财季营收为31.12亿美元，同⽐增⻓44.1%（上季度为21.5%），⾼于市场预期的29.56亿美元（约同⽐增⻓36.9%）；Non-GAAP每股收益为4.10美元，⾼于市场预期的3.50-3.51美元；Non-GAAP⽑利率为47.0%，⾼于市场预期的44.3-44.6%。 FQ4 guide was revenue$3.45B, +~41% y/y vs Street ~$3.15-$3.16B, +~29% y/y,with EPS$5.00 vs Street ~$3.96-$3.99 and low-40s OM vs Street ~36%. ImpliedGMs 50% vs street in high 40s. 第四季度营收指引为34.5亿美元，同⽐增⻓约41%，⾼于市场预期的约31.5亿⾄31.6亿美元（同⽐增⻓约29%）；每股收益（EPS）为5.00美元，⾼于市场预期的约3.96⾄3.99美元；营业利润率（OM）处于40%左右的低位，⾼于市场预期的约36%。隐含⽑利率（GM）为50%，⾼于市场预期的40%以上。 Annual revenue growth target raised to minimum 20%, nearline capacity nearlyallocated through CY27, build-to-order contracts through FY27, Mozaic 4+ramping, and FCF approaching$1B. 年度营收增⻓⽬标上调⾄⾄少20%，近线存储容量在2027⽇历年之前已基本分配完毕，按订单⽣产（build-to-order）合同已签署⾄2027财年，Mozaic 4+正在放量，且⾃由现⾦流（FCF）接近10亿美元。 Key takeaways: Mgmt highlighted$/TB or$/EB moving higher, noting the largest HDD priceincrease per EB in over a decade. The durability of the pricing story rests onnearline capacity being nearly allocated through CY27, build-to-order dealsthrough FY27, and conversations extending into CY28. 管理层强调$/TB或$/EB正在⾛⾼，并指出这是⼗多年来最⼤的每EB硬盘价格涨幅。定价逻辑的持续性取决于：到2027⽇历年近线存储容量已基本分配完毕、到2027财年的按订单⽣产协议，以及已延伸⾄2028⽇历年的业务洽谈。 Mgmt emphasized no change in pricing strategy, but demand continues to exceedsupply. 管理层强调定价策略没有改变，但需求持续超过供应。 Mozaic 4+ is qualified at two of the world’s largest CSPs, began revenueshipments in late March, and is expected to represent the majority of HAMRexabytes exiting CY26. Mgmt said qualification timelines were in line with PMR,which is important because it reduces concern that HAMR adoption will be slow,costly, or unreliable. Mozaic 4+已通过全球两家最⼤云服务提供商（CSP）的认证，并于3⽉底开始出货并产⽣营收，预计到2026历年年底将占据HAMR出货容量（exabytes）的⼤部分。管理层表示，认证时间线与PMR技术⼀致，这⼀点⾄关重要，因为它减轻了市场对HAMR采⽤缓慢、成本⾼昂或可靠性低的担忧。 Mozaic 5 at 50TB remains targeted for qualification shipments in late CY27 50TB的Mozaic 5仍计划在2027历年年底进⾏认证出货。 Mgmt reiterated STX is not adding unit capacity, and exabyte growth is beingdriven by areal density, not unit growth. That helps support the “rational duopoly /constrained supply” thesis. 管理层重申STX不会增加单位产能，容量增⻓是由⾯密度驱动的，⽽⾮单位出货量的增⻓。这有助于⽀持“理性双寡头/供应受限”的论点。 Data center revenue was$2.5B, +55% y/y and +12% q/q vs Street around$2.37B,and data center was 80% of revenue. Mgmt cited AI inference, agentic AI, video,physical AI, sovereign cloud, neocloud, and enterprise tiered architectures asdrivers. 数据中⼼营收为25亿美元，同⽐增⻓55%，环⽐增⻓12%，⾼于市场预期的约23.7亿美元，且数据中⼼业务占总营收的80%。管理层指出，AI推理、代理式AI（agentic AI）、视频、物理AI、主权云、新型云（neocloud）以及企业分层架构是主要的驱动因素。 The callback noted mechanical parts were sufficient, memory was short and moreexpensive, but HDDs require limited memory and STX expects internal yield/costactions to offset 在电话会议中指出，机械部件供应充⾜，内存供应紧张且价格上涨，但硬盘驱动器（HDD）对内存的需求有限，且STX预计通过内部良率和成本控制措施来抵消相关影响。 On the callback, mgmt also remained confident in pricing improvement for at leastthe next four quarters, with build-to-order contracts in place through FY27,nearline EB supply allocated through CY27, and planning discussions extendinginto CY28. 在电话会议上，管理层还对未来⾄少四个季度的价格改善保持信⼼。⽬前按订单⽣产的合同已签署⾄2027财年，近线存储EB级容量供应已分配⾄2027⽇历年，且规划讨论已延伸⾄2028⽇历年。 Mozaic 4+ volumes were still small in March bu