2026年全球投资峰会主要结论——高预期与持续的峰值担忧

EquitiesSemiconductors &Equipment GIS 2026key takeaways–highexpectationvs ongoingpeak outconcerns Korea ◆Investors keen onmemory priceoutlookand progress oflong-termstrategiccooperationagreements(SCAs) Ricky Seo*Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and DisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8777 ◆Increasing pricesto persist until 2027 while serverdemandtocontinueexceedingexpectationsamidless power consumption Han Kil Chang*Research Analyst, Korea TechnologyThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com+822 3706 8750 ◆We prefer Samsungwith HBM4catch-up and foundry recovery We hosted Micronatour Global Investment Summit2026;investors werekeento find:1)how longmemoryprice hikeswillcontinueandhow high;2)whetherearnings or DRAM pricemomentumis important for share prices;3) the progressofstrategic cooperationagreements (SCAs)andtheirimplications;4)theimpact oftherecent capex increase by memory makers;5) intensified threat from Chinese players;and 6) structural changeinfundamentaland valuation methodology.Investorsarekeen to seelong-termagreementswith majorcloud service providers (CSPs),suchasSCAs,which willlastfor 3-5 years,andthese are likely toboostthere-rating ofmemorystocks as iteliminatesthe discountsdue toearningsvolatilityand cyclicity, inour view. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Upwardprice trend to persist until 2027:Weexpectmemory pricestocontinuetheirupward trend until year-end,potentiallyuntil 1H27e, and thereismore upsidepotential than downside risks due to;1) incrementally increasing server demand formanaging agentic AI systems;2)Vera CPU to drive memory demand through higherDRAM content per unit and growing adoption in non-Rubin-GPU paired systems;3)more NAND adoption in upcoming AI platforms such as NAND-based inferencecontext memory storage(ICMS);and 4) limited meaningful capacity increaseformemory makersuntil end-1H27. WethinkNAND priceswillincreasemorethanDRAM as it has more room to go in terms of OP marginformemory makers at55-60%versus 85-90% in DRAM. Serverdemandto exceed expectations,whileCSP capexremainsstrong:WethinktheStreet underestimatesthe impact ofdemand fromtheadoption ofagentic AIbycorporates.Becausegeneral servershostagentic AI more cost efficientlyandconsumeless power, demandforgeneral serversin datacentresissoaring. Inaddition,increase infeesfor cloud servicesbased onlegacyNVIDIAH100GPUsforAI usageshouldsupportaggressive cloud serviceordersforCSPs. This implies that;1) there willbemore upside in CSP capex in 2027following therobust2026 capexand 2) this will make datacentreinvestmenteasierdue tohigherROIC expectations.We expectgreateruse of ARM-based low power solutionsingeneralservers,whichshouldboost newly introducedSO-CAMM2 memory. SamsungElectronics is our preferred pickdue to;1)itsrecaptureof DRAMleadership with HBM4;2) benefitsfrom soaring NAND demand;3) foundry utilisationrecovery;4) rising shareholder return;and 5)potentialmarket sharegain insmartphones, whichshouldreturn to more service revenue in the future. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com AI inference server structure Source:Company data, Bloomberg consensusestimates Exhibit13.Details of historicalupcyclesof the DRAM market, by key events UpcyclesDetails(1)1990-1995Personal computer (PC) boom, widespread adoption of PC per household leading to growth in DRAM demand(2) 1998-2000Strong replacement demand from the 'Y2K' crisis, leading to even stronger PC replacement investment(3) 2002-2006Demand fordownloadable services spiked with the help of slim notebook demand from LCD, release of iPod, and development of legacy cellphones(4) 2009-2010Launch of the world's first smartphone, and start of a new era in mobile application demand(5) 2012-2015Prolonged upcycle due to sudden supply reduction from major fire incident in SK Hynix's China facilities(6) 2016-2018Widespread adoption of streaming services leading to accelerated investment to cloud infrastructure and digital transition(7) 2020-2022Unprecedented demand boom from 'WFH' trend causing more demand for PC, Chromebooks, and Tablet computers amid the global pandemic(8)1H24-currentGen AI application demand growth, core of AI is moving from training (GPU) to inferencing (memory)Source:HSBC Source:Company data, HSBC estimates. Note: Capex including Samsungelectronics, SK Hynix, Micron Technology. Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:TrendForce, HSBCestimates Source:TrendForce, HSB