买入：汇丰全球投资峰会2026年关键要点

EquitiesSoftware Buy:HSBC Global Investment Summit2026key takeaways China ◆Robust AI Suite order intake in 1Q26;moreAI productstolaunchin Maywithorder growthto acceleratefrom2Q26 MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)17.7017.70SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE8.56+106.8%(as of14 Apr 2026) ◆ARR and revenue growthpoint tobetterdemand momentum;strict expensecontrolshould supportearnings recovery ◆Maintain Buy with PS-based TP of HKD17.70 We hostedKingdee’s managementduring theHSBC Global Investment Summit2026on14-16April. MARKET DATA Strengtheningdemand momentumin 1Q26.Kingdee’s 1Q26 ARR grew19%y-o-ytoRMB4.2bn. 1Q26 revenue growthacceleratedto 13%+y-o-y, up from 12% in2025,driven primarily by large enterprise andlocalisationdemand. Management guided forfull-year ARRy-o-ygrowth of 18-19%.Constellationnet retention rate showed seasonalfluctuationsat 103% in 1Q26(vs.thefull-year target of 110%+),partly becausecustomers postponed purchasing add-ons ahead of upcoming AI product launches, whileGalaxy and Stellarretention improved. Importantly, cash collections (adjustfor changes incontract liabilities) grew faster than revenue, as customers increasingly pre-pay to securedelivery resources,pointing to animprovingdemand pipeline and visibility. SmoothAI monetisation.AI Suite contractvalue reachedRMB230min 1Q26,exceedingKingdee'sinternalexpectations. The full-year AISuiterevenue target ofRMB1bn remains unchanged, and management noted the current run-rate is trackingahead of plan.MostAIcontracts’ delivery cycles rangefrom 1-2 months for simplerdeployments to up to 6 months for complex scenarios, with deal sizes spanning fromseveral hundred thousand RMB to RMB30-50m. Pricing follows a subscriptionandusage basedmodel, with potential evolution toward outcome-based pricing over time.Kingdee plansto launch more AI productsinMay.While acknowledging that awarenessof skills/agents among enterprises remains nascent for now, with consistent marketeducation,managementexpects demandtoacceleratefrom 2Q onward. Yiran Liu* (Reg. No. S1700520040001)Head of A-share IT Software ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedyiran1.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 10 5795 2349 Disciplinedexpense control and continued earnings recovery.Kingdeereducedheadcount by a further 600-700 in 1Q26, incurring one-time severance costs, yetoperating losses still narrowed significantly.In addition, ERP with upgraded AI functionsenjoysa meaningfulpricingpremium overtraditionalSaaSERP,boostinggrossmarginsexpansion. Additionally, AI-powered tools are improving delivery efficiency,shortening project timelines. Heng Zhang* (Reg. No. S1700524050001)Analyst, A-share IT Software ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedheng.zhang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 10 5795 2384 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy and TP of HKD17.70.We continue to apply a 2026e target PS of 7x tovalue Kingdee. Based on our 2026e revenue of RMB7.8bn and RMB/HKDFX rateof1.16, we arrive at our TP of HKD17.70 (unchanged). Our target price implies c107%upside from current levels; accordingly, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Webelieve Kingdee is set to benefit from industry tailwinds of AI and localisation, and weexpect moderate expense growth and continued cloud transition to boost earningsgrowth. Seekey downside risksonpage4. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Kingdee Valuation and risks MaintainBuyratingandPS-basedtarget priceofHKD17.70 We continue to use a PS multiple, referencing its historical valuation, to value Kingdee.Kingdee’s historical average PS since 2018 is 8.6x, with a revenue CAGR of 14%over 2018-24.We estimate Kingdee’s revenue CAGR at 12% over 2024-27e(unchanged). Hence, we apply a2026e target PS of 7x (12/14*8.6,unchanged) to value Kingdee. Based on our 2026e revenue of RMB7.8bn(unchanged)and RMB/HKD of 1.16, we arrive atour TP of HKD17.70(unchanged). Our target price implies c107% upside from current levels;accordingly, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. We believe Kingdee is set to benefit fromindustry tailwinds of AI, localisation, and less intense competition, and we expect moderateexpense growth and continued cloud transition to boost earnings growth. Separately, Kingdee is trading at3.3x one-year forward PS (vs 4.2x of 1SD below its historicalaverage PS, vs Yonyou’s3.9x one-year forward PS). The PS multiple for Yonyou and Kingdeeare close historically; however,Kingdee’s valuation has diverged significantly fromYonyouy-t-d,due to thepanic sell-off intheH-share tech space given concernsaroundAIpotentially replacings