汇丰第13届年度墨西哥机遇论坛：关键企业要点

Issuer of report:Banco HSBC SAView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comNicole Inui*, CFAHead of Equity Strategy, AmericasBanco HSBC S.A.nicole.inui@hsbc.com+55 11 2802 3475Diego Serrano*Analyst, Consumer StaplesHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de BancaMultiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCdiego.serrano@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 3361Jorge Hernandez*Analyst, Aviation and IndustrialsHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCjorge.hernandezhe@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 4760 3113Phani KanumuriAnalyst, TMTHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.phani.kanumuri@us.hsbc.com+1 240 709 8135Carlos Gomez-Lopez, CFAHead of EM and LatAm FinancialsHSBCSecurities (USA) Inc.carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5253Neha Agarwala, CFAAnalyst, LatAm Financials & FintechHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5418Carlos LaboyGlobalBeverage Head, LatAm Food AnalystHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.carlos.a.laboy@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 6972Jonathan Brandt, CFAAnalyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining,Pulp & PaperHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4499Cenk Orcan*Aviation & Industrials AnalystHSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.cenkorcan@hsbc.com.tr+90 212 376 46 14Sorabh Daga*Analyst, Global Beverages, LatAm FoodHSBCSecurities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedsorabh.k.daga@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4550 2627Santiago Bringas*Analyst, Global Beverages, LatAm FoodHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCsantiago.bringas@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 8551 2419* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquity StrategyLatin America ◆◆◆ Key ChartsGDPgrowth expectationsplummeted;consensusexpectsno growth in2025Source: BloombergLabor market remains strong withunemployment at decade-long lowsSource: BanxicoMexican equities remain well discountedeven with slight re-rating y-t-dSource:FactSet(0.5)-0.51.01.52.0May-24Jul-242025 Consensus GDP growth expectations-1.02.03.04.05.06.0Mar-10Apr-11May-12Jun-138.0x10.0x12.0x14.0x16.0x18.0xMay-16Dec-16Jul-17Feb-18FTSE Mexico+1 std.dev Source: Banxico,as of 27 May 2025Earningsrevision ratios appear to havebottomed andareinflectingSource:FactSetFeb-250.2x0.7x1.2x1.7x2.2xDec-19May-20Oct-20Mar-21Aug-21Mexico 3M moving ERRAverage Company highlightsAirportsASUR (ASURB MM, Hold, TP MXN710.00, CP MXN665.92)Time to forget aboutTulum?Some concernsurroundsTulumairport, located 170km (106mi)away from Cancun, which continues its ramp-up phase and is seen as a potential competitor forthe Cancun airport. Nonetheless, it is important to recall that the Tulum effect on Cancun’spassenger traffic is embedded in itsMaster Development Plan,meaning that any foregonepassenger at Cancun is already reflected in the maximum tariff. This explains the maximumtariff increase of 30% y-o-y in 2024. Furthermore, some international airlines are cancellingroutes for the winterseason in Tulum due to underperforming load factors given the decrease ofUS travelers in the region. ASUR believes this is an opportunity to increase the number ofroutes with Canadian airlines for Cancun.Management expectsCancun airportto register trafficgrowth of 5% y-o-y in 2025.Financials & FintechBanorte (GFNORTEO MM, Hold, TP MXN170.00, CP MXN175.67)Loan growth momentum, preparing for lower rates.Despite the slowdown in the economy,loan demandwas+14% y-o-y in Q1; management emphasized the need to concentrate on whatitdoeswell during uncertain times; credit card spending was resilient in April, driven bydiscretionary categories, and consumers continue to behave well, with no deterioration in assetquality. The company has been preparing the balance sheet, reducing its sensitivity to interestrates, in order to mitigate the impact of lower policy ratesand sustain margins. The evolution inthedigital space has been aggressive, with new players offering high-yielding accounts, buttime deposits continue to grow. The company is rationalizing its digital offeringsand notestheRappi card app is well positioned to competewith other market players. Management alsohighlighted positive signs from the government's communication with the private sector, incontrast with the previous administration. For more details, refer to our reportMexicanFinancials: Breathing easier in 1Q25, but lower rates loom, 13May2025. Cenk Orcan*Aviation & Industrials AnalystHSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.cenkorcan@hsbc.com.tr+90 212 376 46 14Jorge Hernandez*Analyst, Aviation and IndustrialsHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion deBanca Multiple, Grupo FinancieroHSBCjorge.hernandezhe@hsbc.com.mx+52 55 4760 3113* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsCarlos Gomez-Lopez, CFAHead of EM and LatAm FinancialsHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5253Neha Agarwala, CFAAnalyst, LatAmFinancials &FintechHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 54