2026年第一季度预览：依托搜索与云业务的增长势头

Internet 1Q26 Preview: Building on Search/Cloud Momentum Benjamin Black, CFA Research Analyst+1-212-250-9218Kunal Madhukar,CFA We expect a strong quarter from Alphabet in 1Q26, driven by continued strengthinSearch,andaccelerationinCloudrevenue,offsetsomewhatbydeceleration-to-flatgrowthat YouTube.Werecentlyhostedanad-check call with AndrewMcLean,Principal and Managing Director of Inventus Media, a global full-service mediaagency (link). His yly spend growth on Search was relatively stable in 1Q26 (vs.4Q25levels),thoughhedidpointtoadecelerationingrowthatYouTubeonthebackofashiftofsomebrandbudgetsawayfromYouTubeinMarch,assomeadvertisersfocused less on top-of-funnel consideration campaigns. Looking ahead to 2Q26,ouragencycheckssuggesta50bps advertisinggrowthreacceleration(to+5.9%y/y), driven primarily by a rebound in YouTube to +11.4% yly growth, benefitingfromtherecentlysignedagreementtoairhighlightsfromtheFIFAWorldCupwithin10 minutes after each game.YouTube has a similar deal with the NFL, and thisinventory could be very attractive for advertisers.We note that the Street projectsa q/q deceleration in both Search and YouTube revenue in 2Q26 Research Analyst+1-212-250-9357RaymondWong Research Associate+1-212-250-2060JeffSeiner,CFA Research Associate+1-212-250-8153 Benjamin Hui, Esq.Research Associate+1-212-250-2064 Ourconversationssuggest investorsexpectSearchrevenuegrowthtobeattheStreetbyabout2points.Forcontext,consensus is callingfor16.5%ylygrowth in1Q26,or~14.3%FXNgrowth;thisimplies~110bpsq/qdecelerationona130bpseasier comp.If thebusiness just holds at the4Q25pace onFXN basis,at15.4%,then the easier comp could -- just mathematically -- suggest the FxN growth in1Q26could be 16.7% (i.e.,15.4% +1.3%easiercomp); FX is likelyto be the2.2%-point benefitin the quarter, which could add up to 18.9% y/ygrowth in the quarter,or~240bpsaboveconsensus.Hence,wecanseewhythebuy-sideexpectationsareabout 2-pointsabove the Street.We also see strength in Google.com visits,whichisup~3%in2026YTD,thatalsobodeswellfor2Q26,inourview.Inthepast3years,Searchrevenuehasseasonallygrown~6%q/qin2Q;for2Q26,consensusexpectationscallfora5%q/q increase,whichisbelowwhat normalseasonality implies. OnYouTube,conversationshavebeenmoremixed.Consensusexpectationsarefor 11.6% y/ly growth in the quarter, implying 9.4% FxN, which suggestsexpectationfora200bpsq/qaccelerationona210bpseasiercomp.Whilethatmayappear reasonable,our recent ad checks have been more mixed, suggestingmodesttemporarypressure.As such,wethink buy-sideestimatesmaybemoregiventheshift inad spend inMarch,whichlikelyis notyet completely reflectedinStreet estimates.ForYouTube,q/qseasonality hasbeen much moremixed,varyingfromhigh-SD in2Q25and2Q24tomid-teensin2Q23.Streetestimates InternetAlphabet World Cup. q/qon a6obps easier comp,but webelievethe buy-side likely is significantlysignificant chip shortage impacting Al players such as Meta.In thepast2 years,GcP'snext12-monthrevenueas%ofbackloghastypicallybeen~50%asbackloggrowth slowed. However, at 4Q25-end, it had declined to ~34%, implying eitherexpectations areconservative,orthebacklogmayhavebecomemoreback-endloaded.Werecognizethebacklogcouldbeforlonger-datedcommitmentsvs.priorquarters,asGOOG'sreportednext2-year'sbacklogtorevenueconversionestimatedeclined to50%in4Q25from55%in3Q25.Atthesame time, backlog increasedby~$50bnin3Q25andanother$85bnin4Q25;evenifnewlyaddedcommitmentsaresomewhatlongerdated,westilldon'tdiscountthepossibilitythatour/Streetcurrent projections may still prove conservative.For 2Q26, consensus ismodelingylygrowthtodecelerate~230bpsq/qto47%ona150bpstoughercomp;wethinkthereis roomforsignificantupsiderevisioninconsensusexpectationsgiventhestrongbackloggrowth,andcontinuedshortageofcomputeresourcesforAl-basedapplications/platforms. GCPbacklogwas~$243bnat4Q25-end,upover160%yly.Thecompanydidnotdisclose any new major Al deals in 1Q, and as such we expect q/q backlog growthcould slow. However, we think the backlog could increase significantly again, in $terms, in 2Q26 when the company includes the recentlyannounced agreementbetween Anthropic and Google and Broadcom,formultiple gigawatts of next-genTPUcapacitystarting in2027.Thedeal represents an expansionofthepartnershiporiginallyannouncedinOct.2025 As such,we are modestly adjusting our expectations,and reflecting FX-relatedchanges through the quarter.For 1Q26, we are projecting total revenue of$107.8bn,up19.5%y/y(and+16.9%FXN),modestlyabovetheStreetat$106.9bnandourpriorestimateof$107.3bn;thisimplies~20bpsq/qaccelerationFXNona~160bps q/qtougher comp.We expectSearch revenueof~$59.2bn,up14.5%ylyFXN, marginally ahead of the Street and our prior $58.9bn estimate. This implies~90bpsq/qdecelerationona130bpseasiercompare--inourmodel,weassumeFX impacts all the different lines of businesses equally.Weproject YouTube Adsrevenue of s9.8bn (unchanged),or up 8% yly FXN, which represents a ~60bpsaccelerationq/qona21Obpseasiercomp.ForGoogleCloud,weexpectrevenueof$19.0bn,orup52.5%y/y