2025年第二季度财报超出预期，搜索和云业务表现稳健

FY26EFY27E438,647486,267131,158.8144,420.610.0610.839.6310.2919.017.7 Target PriceUS$221.00(Previous TPUS$218.00)Up/Downside15.4%Current PriceUS$191.51InternetSaiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkJoanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (US$ mn)2,318,803.1Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn)1,826.952w High/Low (US$)207.71/146.58Total Issued Shares(mn)12108.0Source: FactSetShareholding StructureSergey BrinLarry PageSource: Company dataSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative14.2%18.6%-5.1%Source: FactSet12-m th Price PerformanceSource: FactSet 6.0%5.7%1-mth8.2%3-mth-3.1%6-mth-10.0% 11.9311.6416.1 PLEASE READ THE ANALY ST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEBusiness forecasts update and valuationFigure1:Alphabet:forecast revisionCurrentUS$ bnFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue393.3438.6486.3390.7Gross profit231.8259.1287.8228.9Operating profit129.9147.7165.0129.7Net profit121.8131.2144.4120.2EPS (US$)10.110.811.99.9Gross margin58.9%59.1%59.2%58.6%Operating margin33.0%33.7%33.9%33.2%Net margin31.0%29.9%29.7%30.8%Source: CMBIGM estimatesFigure2:Alphabet:CMBIGM estimates vs consensusCMBIGMUS$ bnFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue393.3438.6486.3385.2Gross profit231.8259.1287.8229.0Operating profit129.9147.7165.0128.9Net profit121.8131.2144.4117.9EPS(US$)10.110.811.99.6Gross margin58.9%59.1%59.2%59.5%Operating margin33.0%33.7%33.9%33.5%Net margin31.0%29.9%29.7%30.6%Source: CMBIGM estimates, BloombergValuationWe valueAlphabetat US$221.0per share based on22x 2025EP/E.Our target PE multipleis adiscountto the sector average (25x),which reflects the intensifying competition in thesearch market.Figure3:Alphabet: target valuationP/E valuation (US$m n)Net incomeTarget 2025EP/E(x)Target equity valuationValuation per share (US$)Source:Company data,CMBIGM estimatesFigure4: Global online ad platforms: valuation comparisonCom paniesTickerPricePE (x)(LC)2025E2026EGlobal adsAlphabetGOOG US191.519.318.5MetaMETA US713.628.324.2PinterestPINS US37.822.018.3SnapSNAP US10.129.820.3Average24.820.3Global techMicrosoftMSFT US505.938.433.7AmazonAMZN US228.330.127.3Netflix IncNFLX US1176.846.338.0UberUBER US89.933.525.2Average37.131.1Source: Bloomberg,CMBIGMNote: data as of23Jul 2025E121,833222,680,315221.0PS (x)2027E2025E2026E16.17.26.421.19.78.514.96.25.415.32.82.516.86.55.728.913.612.022.93.53.231.411.310.119.83.73.225.78.07.1 PLEASE READ THE ANALY ST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of thisresearch report, in whole or in part, certifiesthatwith respect to the securitiesor issuerthat the analyst coveredin thisreport: (1) all of the viewsexpressed accurately reflect hisor her personal viewsabout the subject securitiesor issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific viewsexpressed by that analyst in thisreport.Besides, the analyst confirmsthat neither the analyst nor his/her associates(asdefined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securitiesand FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s)covered in thisresearch report within 30 calendar daysprior to the date of issue of thisreport; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in thisresearch report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer ofany of the HongKong listed companiescovered in thisreport; and (4) have any financial interestsin the Hong Kong listed companiescoveredin thisreport.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of ov er 15% ov er next 12 monthsHOLD:Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% ov er next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of ov er 10% ov er next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperf orm the relev ant broadmarket benchmark ov er next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perf orm in-line with the relev ant broad market benchmark ov er next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperf orm the relev ant broad market benchmark ov er next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal Mark etsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiaryof CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in thisreport may not be suitable forthe purposesof all investors.CMBIGMdoesnot provide individually tailored investment advice. Thisreport hasbeen prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance hasno indicationof future performance, and actual eventsmay differ materially from that which iscontained in thereport