4Q25结果：人工智能持续推动强劲的搜索和云业务表现

strong search and cloudbusiness performance 4Q25 results:AI continues to drive strongsearch and cloud business performance Target PriceUS$396.00(Previous TPUS$328.00)Up/Downside18.8%Current PriceUS$333.34 Alphabetreported 4Q25 results:total revenue grew by 18%YoY toUS$113.8bn, 2% ahead ofBloombergconsensus estimate thanks to the stronggrowth of Google Search and Cloud revenue; operating income was up by 16%YoY to US$35.9bn, lower than consensus estimate of US$36.9bn, but mainlyreflecting one-off US$2.1bnstock-based compensation chargerelatedto anincrease in Waymo's valuation. For FY26E,managementguidedtotal capex tobeUS$175-185bn(+91%-102%YoY),significantly ahead of consensusestimate(US$117bn),and also expected meaningful acceleration indepreciation growth due to AI investment. That said, we expectAI investmentwill continue to support the strong performance of Google Search and Cloud Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Acceleration in search revenuegrowth.Google Search & other revenueaccelerated to grow by 17% YoY to US$63.1bn in 4Q25 (3Q25/2Q25:+15%/+12% YoY), driven by strength across sectors. AI has become a keydriver toenhancesearch experience and improve adperformance: 1)dailyAI Mode queries per userhasdoubledsince launch, and queries in AI modeare 3x longer than traditional searches, whichenabled search tobecomemore conversational; 2) AI improved ad quality andefficiencyof advertisers, StrongGoogle Cloud business supported by robust AI demand. Google Cloudbusiness was strong in 4Q25 onmultiplefacets: 1) revenuegrew by 48% YoY to US$17.7bn, mainly driven by the strong growth inenterprise AI products.2) OPMexpandedby 13pct YoY to 30.1%, thanksto the operating leverage and enhancedefficiency. The company loweredGemini's serving unit costs by 78% over 2025 through model optimizations.3)Backlog increased by 55% QoQ and by over 100% YoY to US$240bn,underpinned by the strong demand frommultiplecustomers.The number of Doubling capex in FY26E.Overall OPM was largely flat YoY at 32% in4Q25. Management guidedtotal capex to be in the range of US$175-185bninFY26E(+91%-102%YoY),with c.60%/40%of the investment inservers/data centre & networking equipment.Managementexpectedthe Source: FactSet Business forecasts update and valuation Valuation We valueAlphabetat US$396.0per share based on35x 2026EP/E.Our target PE multipleis apremiumto the sector average (18x),which mainlyreflects Google’s competitive edge Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construedas an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whethe