中际旭创（300308 CH）：人工智能需求推动季度业绩创历史新高；强劲的云资本支出支撑前景

Record-high quarter driven by AI demand;Robust cloud capex underpins outlook Target PriceRMB591.00(Previous TPRMB415.00)Up/Downside24.9%Current PriceRMB473.01 Innolight delivered yet another record-breaking quarter, with revenue rising+57%/+26%YoY/QoQ to RMB10.2bn. Gross margin expanded sharply by+9.2/+1.3ppt YoY/QoQ to 42.8%,driven by strong leverage from 800Gtransceiver shipmentsandbroader uptake of SiPh-based solutions. Net profitsurged+125%YoY/+30% QoQ to RMB3.1bn, also a record high, with netmargin reaching 30.7% (vs.29.7% in 2Q25 and 21.4% in 3Q24).ReiterateBUY, with TP raised to RMB591. China Semiconductors Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Strong 800G shipments and rising SiPh adoption underpin record-high GPM.GPMexpansion was mainly driven by a richer product mix, ledby sustained 800G volume growth and the ramp of 1.6T transceivers. Thebroader adoption ofSiPhacross both 800G and 1.6T product lines furtherlifted margins, given its inherently more favorable cost structure. Continuedyield improvement and higher production efficiency also contributed tomargin gains.Mgmt.expects 800G momentum to remain solid, while1.6TSiPh transceiversare set toenter mass production in early-2026. Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Rawmaterial tightness manageable given market leadership.Mgmt.acknowledged ongoing tightness in key upstream opticalcomponents such asEML and CWLsince 2024, but notedthe company’sleading positionin the global optical transceiver market enables it tosecuresufficientmaterial supply for production needs.The company hasproactively locked in long-term capacity with major suppliers to mitigatepotentialdisruptions.Mgmt.expects the current supply constraints togradually ease by 1H26as upstream manufacturers expand productioncapacity. Stock Data Shareholding Structure Hyperscalers’ expanding AI infrastructure capexreinforcesnear-tomedium-term growth for the company.Major overseas hyperscalerscontinue to scale investment in AI infrastructure, providing a strong demandtailwind for Innolight.Googlerecently guided CY25E capexofUS$91–93bn(vs. US$85bn previously), whileMetaraised its CY25E target toUS$70-72bn.Microsoftalso reiterated that capex willcontinue to growdespiteearlier expectations of moderation. This sustained hyperscaler spendingmomentum will further support the company’s sales in the coming quarters. ReiterateBUY, with TP raised toRMB591,based on 28x 2026EP/E, 1SDabove 5-yearhistoricalavg. P/E, justified by Innolight’s leadership in AIoptical transceivers marketduring this stronginvestmentcycle.Our NPforecastfor 2026E is revised up by 52%,reflecting higher revenueexpectationsdue to increasing capex.Key risks include lower-than-expected AI capex, geopolitical/tariff uncertainties, supply chain disruptionsand intensified competition, etc. Source: FactSet Source: Company data, CMBIGMestimates Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) allof the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listedcompanies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential returnof +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International CapitalCorporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Import