4Q25 结果：人工智能推动健康社区发展和盈利提升

development and monetization 4Q25results: AI to drive healthy community improvement Target PriceUS$30.50(Previous TPUS$31.00)Up/Downside19.4%Current PriceUS$25.55 BiliBiliannounced 4Q25 financialresults: total revenuewas upby8% YoY toRMB8.32bn,2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate mainly due to thestronger-than-expected performance of advertising business(+27%YoY);adjustednetincomegrew by 94% YoY to RMB878mn, 10% ahead ofconsensusestimatethanks to the operating leverage and effective opex control. Lookingahead, weforecast total revenue to grow by 6%/8% YoY in 1Q26E/FY26E,mainly driven by the strong advertising business. We expect margin expansion China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Acceleratingad revenue growth on strong demand and improved adefficiency.By segment in 4Q25: 1) VAS revenue increased by 6% YoY toRMB3.26bn (39% of total revenue), mainly supported by steady growth ofthe live streaming business. Revenue from Fan Charging program doubledYoY in 2025. 2)Advertising revenue accelerated to grow by 27% YoY toRMB3.04bn (37% of total revenue). BiliBili became the go-to platform for AIservice providers, withAI-related ad budgets up by c.180% YoY in 4Q25.3)Mobile games revenue was down by 14% YoYto RMB1.54bn(19% of total AIas a key driver of community growth and monetizationimprovement.The company providescreators with AIGC tools and AItranslation to help them generate quality content and reach global audience.Onmonetizationfront, AI grew ad spending aimed at deep conversion byover 40% YoY, and the smart ad delivery system lifted cold startsuccessrate of ad campaigns by c.300% YoY in 4Q25. Looking into 1Q26E, weexpect total revenue to increase by 6% YoY to RMB7.45bn, mainly driven Increasing AI investment.Overall GPM improved by 0.9ppt YoY and0.3ppt QoQto37.0% in4Q25, mainly thanks to the operating leverage.AdjustedOPMexpanded by 4.1ppt YoYto10.1% in4Q25, underpinned bythe effective opex control (-3% YoY).We expect adjusted OPM to improveby c.1/1ppt YoY to 6/9%in 1Q26E/FY26E,mainly attributable to the Source: FactSet Business forecasts updateand valuation SOTP Valuation Based on the SOTP valuation, our target price for Bili is US$30.5per ADS, including: 1) US$16.3for the advertising business (54% of the total valuation),based on a21x 2026EPE. Thetarget PE multipleis atapremiumtothe industry average (20x 2026E PE), 2) US$6.8for the VAS business (22% of the total valuation),based on a1.7x 2026EPS.The target PS multiple ison par withthe average PS of other video platforms. 3) US$7.1for mobile games (23% of the total valuation),based on an18x 2026E PE. Thetarget PE multipleis ata discounttothe industry average (19x 2026E PE), as Bili has yet 4) US$0.3forIP derivatives and others(1% of the total valuation),based on a0.4x 2026EPS. Thetarget PS multiple is on par with the average PS of the other e-commerce platforms. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock withpotential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmarkover next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMBInternational Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved i