吉利汽车第一季度：坚实核心，极氪与海外业务增长势头强劲

Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd Price Target Geely Q1: Solid Core, Rising Zeekr and Overseas momentum Solid Q1 operating performance, FX swing dragged yoy comparison.Geely reported Q1revenue of RMB 83.8bn, +15.2% yoy and -20.8% qoq. Deliveries totaled 709k unit (+0.8% yoyand -17% qoq), with EV sales mix declining to 51.7% in Q1 26, vs. 48.2% in Q1 25 and 60.9%in Q4 25, pressured by EV purchase tax hike and subsidies being scaled down. ASP reachedRMB 112k in Q1 26, +19% yoy compared to RMB 94k in Q1 25, and flat qoq, according tomanagement. This implies auto part sales and R&D licensing revenue rose +14.8% yoy and-21.2% qoq. The strong yoy growth in ASP is attributable to higher export shipment and Zeekrpremium brand sales. Export mix reached 28.6%, vs. 12.6% in Q1 25 and 14.5% in Q4 25. AndZeekr’s contribution grew to 10.9%, vs. 5.9% in Q1 25 and 9.4% in Q4 25. Zeekr’s ASP wasRMB 295k in Q1 26, more than 3 times the Geely brand’s ASP of RMB 91k. The stronger product mix, together with cost reduction efforts, boosted gross marginsdespite higher commodity and memory costs (c.RMB 2k impact per vehicle). Gross marginimproved to 17.5%, vs. 15.7% in Q1 25 and 16.9% in Q4 25. Selling expenses reached 5.2% ofrevenue (vs. 5.0% in Q1 25 and 6.3% in Q4 25) due to channel expansion. R&D expenses roseRMB 1.2bn yoy due to a higher proportion of R&D being expensed rather than capitalized. TheR&D expense ratio increased from 5% in 2018 to 36% in 2025 and 44% in Q1 26. Operatingprofit was RMB 4.9bn, implying a 5.8% margin (vs. 9.2% in Q1 25 and 3.2% in Q4 25). Netincome was RMB 4.2bn, with a 5.0% net margin (vs. 8.1% in Q1 25 and 3.3% in Q4 25). Netprofit declined 27% yoy, mainly due to FX swings of RMB 3.5bn, including an RMB 0.5bn FXloss in Q1 26 vs. an RMB 3.0bn FX gain in Q1 25. Strong overseas growth reinforce positive outlook for 2026; Management struck aconfident tone on i-HEV strategy.Geely’s overseas sales volume reached 203k in Q1 26,yoy +129% and qoq +64%. The robust performance is primarily driven by strong EV demandamid high oil prices, rapid channel expansion (increasing to ~1,900 distributors), and multiplenew model launches. Management reiterated confidence in achieving 750k overseas unit salesin 2026, which we view as achievable given model launches and ... (continue on page 2) Investment Implications DETAILS (continue from page 1) … channel expansion. Additionally, Geely launched its self-developed i-HEV technology underpinnedby a revamped E/E architecture. Management expects 10-12% lower fuel consumption, 20-30% BOM cost savings, andbetter performance versus peers. These advantages should support competitive pricing and market share gains domesticallyand overseas. While we are encouraged by the improved fuel efficiency and value proposition—particularly if oil prices remainelevated—model rollout and pricing will be key to assessing competitiveness versus global peers such as Toyota. EXHIBIT 3:Sales volume in Q1 26 reached 709k units,+0.8% yoy and -17.0% qoq; of which EV-dedicatedbrands (i.e. Zeekr and Galaxy) contributed to 44% totalsales in Q1 26, higher vs. 36% in Q1 25 but slightly lowervs. 45% in Q4 25 EXHIBIT 5:EV (BEV & PHEV) sales mix stood at 51.7% inQ1 26, higher vs. 48.2% in Q1 25 but lower vs. 60.9% inQ4 25 EXHIBIT 7:In Q1 26, BEV and PHEV represented 35% and26% of Geely’s export sales, respectively, comparedto 15% and 5% in Q1 25 and 21% and 17% in Q4 25,respectively EXHIBIT 9:Distribution and selling expenses came in atRMB 4.4bn in Q1 26 implying 5.2% of revenue, vs. 5.0%in Q1 25 and 6.3% in Q4 25 EXHIBIT 10:Administrative expenses reached RMB 5.9bnin Q1 26 which implied 7.0% of revenue vs. 6.5% in Q125 and 7.7% in Q4 25 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd We value Geely based on SOTP valuation. For its EV-dedicated Zeekr brand, we valued it with EV/sales approach. For the remain