2026年度美国能源行业展望报告

April 2026 Table of Contents National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)...........................................................................................................3Modeled Cases......................................................................................................................................................4Population, demographics, and productivity shape long-term economic projections.........................................7 Transportation sector trending both higher tech and less energy intensive......................................................10Policy assumptions determine pace of shifting vehicle technology adoption, especially in freight...................11Alternative policy futures suggest increased liquids consumption filters throughout the energy economy .....12 Data centers bolster electricity demand growth ................................................................................................14Timing of electricity demand affects power sector costs ...................................................................................15The electricity generation mix depends on resource availability and market conditions ..................................16Electricity capacity decisions are affected by policy and regulations ................................................................17 Oil and natural gas ...........................................................................................................................20 Prime acreage and technological advancements in resource recovery are key factors in future U.S. oilproduction ..........................................................................................................................................................21Projections suggest narrow band of refinery throughput amid variable domestic use of petroleum products 22Liquids exports remain historically elevated in nearly all cases .........................................................................23Projections suggest robust natural gas production increases in a narrow range, except when geologicalassumptions vary ................................................................................................................................................24 Why don’t our projections show more nuclear capacity? ..................................................................................28Geothermal still regional, hydrogen remains mostly an industrial concern, both linked to natural gas............29Carbon capture tightly linked to tax credits, emissions fall in all cases..............................................................30 Administrator’s Foreword The report you are reading represents the highest standards of analytical rigor anywhere in the worldand was produced by one of the hardest working, most dedicated teams in the federal government: the TheAnnual Energy Outlookis best understood as a product suite for alternative futures analysis, not aset of predictions. It includes this report, as well as the full set ofdata tablesand visualizations, fullydisclosedassumptionsandmethodologies, detailed descriptions of all 11 scenarios (10 cases plus theCounterfactual Baseline), and the periodicRetrospective, a marvelous innovation in transparency. We check our work, and you should feel free to do the same. The National Energy Modeling System,which forms the foundation of AEO2026, isopen source. All of its modules are fully documented. Everyone associated with this report’s production deserves to be proud. That group may be centered onthe AEO team, but the surrounding orbitals are heavily populated: there is only One EIA. Without the EIA is undergoing a period of decisive acceleration that promises to leave no legacy system orantiquated process untouched. Our team has upgraded code, designed modules, and launched new Leading such a talented and capable group of people ranks among life’s great honors. Tristan AbbeyAdministrator Introduction TheAnnual Energy Outlook 2026(AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in theUnited States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administratorof the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumptionand supply.1These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade We prepared the AEO using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an integrated model thatcaptures interactions of economic changes and energy supply, demand, and prices. Given the complexnature of the energy markets, we produced a series of projections, or cases, with varying assumptions,which represent a range of outcomes for the U.S. energy system. These outcomes are not predictions ofwhat will happen, rather the results represent modeled projections of what could happen given certain National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) NEMS is a long-term energy-economy m