欧洲科技硬件行业：中国之行：来自中国的10大核心洞见

On the road – 10 takeaways fromChina We spent the past week attending SEMICON China andmeeting semiconductor companies across the value chain inChina. We highlight 10 key initial takeaways. European Technology HardwareNEUTRAL European Technology Hardware Simon Coles, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 4519simon.coles@barclays.comBarclays, UK 1. SEMICON China 2026 - packed attendance, bigger than ever We attended SEMICON China from March 25 to March 27; attendance was strong and at times itwasdifficultto get access to booths. We saw larger booths from the likes of Tokyo Electron andBESI, but local player Naura had the largest booth. The conference was a hive of activity with abullish tone. We met with IR/Sales/Engineering representatives across a range of companies. Thomas Wu+44 (0)20 7773 4104thomas.wu@barclays.comBarclays, UK 2. China localisation progressing, leading edge accelerating Rohan Bahl+44 (0)20 7116 9488rohan.bahl@barclays.comBarclays, UK Per our checks with the local fabs and equipment vendors, we have seen the fastest localisationin NAND. The top NAND player in China saw 40%+ overall localisation and we expect 60%+localisation in its next fab. Higher localisation is targeted for future fabs. Due to US exportcontrols and rapid domestic localisation progress, YMTC has placed the majority of its etchingequipment orders to the local vendors now. The top DRAM player is expected to expandaggressively this year at its new fab in Shanghai along with its first HBM production line, but hasa relatively lower localisation rate (~20%). For advanced logic, we have seen more leading edgeplayers outside of the leading foundry since 2H25. HLMC has 7nm capacity and its clients aremainly emerging China AI companies. Many other companies are also working on 7nmdevelopments. We expect further leading edge capacity expansion beyond 2027. Lagging edge isexpected to be flat in 2026, per our channel checks. 3. Memory as the notable driver of 2026 China WFE We picked up that since early March, some OEMs have evaluated increasing the purchaseproportion of their memory from top local manufacturers (limited to mid-to-low endsmartphones). If this spreads to other OEMs, this would be a major development. Likely linked,we understand that NAND customers drove the better than expected results for China semicapsin 4Q25 and are expected to order more in the coming quarters. Per feedback from theequipment vendors, there is no notable bottleneck for NAND expansion in China. The largestDRAM player is targeting aggressive expansion this year, which could help ease supplyconstraints (mostly in consumer) in China in 2H26 – which aligns with what the largest foundryindicated at its FY results. GigaDevice (the leading NOR flash/niche DRAM/MCU fabless companyin China) will purchase 4x as much memory in 2026 vs 2025 (by value, likely inflated by higherASPs). Additionally, CXMT is expected to start construction on two new fabs in 2027, with land Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 4.Completed: 01-Apr-26, 20:28 GMTReleased: 02-Apr-26, 03:00 GMTRestricted - External approval estimated in mid-2026. Interestingly, some smaller DRAM players have started to takeoutside orders rather than just from their partners. 4. Policy developments for China Semis On the chip level, it was confirmed that large Chinese CSPs are required to buy the same portionof domestic chips as foreign chips as the conditional approval of purchase. On the WFE side,local equipment purchasing requirements are more a guidance than a hard rule for now.Localisation is more encouraged at new 12-inch fabs (in particular lagging edge) rather thanexisting fabs. Meanwhile, auto semis has relatively more specific localisation targets (forexample, 25% for 2025) but they are less strict than the headlines suggest. Localisation targetsare assessed by shipment units rather than sales, which makes it easier for the companies tomeet requirements with more shipments from low ASP chips. Local auto chip vendors stillexpect steady localisation progress (rather than accelerating progress) in the next few years. 5. Etching localisation accelerating? Deposition steady progress Per our latest channel checks, the leading Chinese etching player has made notable progress interms of the etching roadmap (in respect to equipment in HVM vs a year ago), with the fastestprogress in 3D NAND and strong progress in advanced logic. It launched a nu