欧洲资本货物：中国之行要点 - 实地悲观情绪加剧

On The Road: China trip takeaways- Rising pessimism on the ground SIGNATURE We heard more caution generally from local manufacturers/experts vs. six months prior. Big stimulus is still not our basecase, and we see growth as limited to selected end markets.We see a greater threat from Chinese players' overseas European Capital GoodsNEUTRAL European Capital Goods Timothy Lee, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6879timothy.lee@barclays.comBarclays, UK Vlad Sergievskii+44 (0)20 7116 1117vlad.sergievskii@barclays.comBarclays, UK Listen We conducted a five-day trip in China in December meeting 23 corporates/experts to get a senseof what's happening on the ground and their early thoughts on 2026, and we have come backwith a slightly more cautious stance. We present five key takeaways from the trip:1)We foundrelatively more pessimistic views on the ground than six months prior, especially in respect ofthe property market (with views ranging from 'expect bottoming in 2026' to 'bottoming in 2027is already a good scenario'), which also brings negative implications for consumer/manufacturing activities.2)Big stimulus is still not our base case, and 'consumption over George Featherstone, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 8585george.featherstone@barclays.comBarclays, UK Vaspaan Yazdi Avari+91 (0)22 6175 2382vaspaany.avari@barclays.comBarclays, UK Amit Batra+91 (0)22 6175 1682amit.batra@barclays.comBarclays, UK UK Capital Goods Jonathan Hurn, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0468jonathan.hurn@barclays.comBarclays, UK In terms of stocks, we continue to seeKONE (UW)sufferingfrom the worsening propertymarket, while we remain skeptical on the pace of recovery for automation and domesticsubstitution processes, hence ourUWcalls onSIE/ABB/RSWand ourEWonSU/RXL. Relativelyspeaking, we think mining/semi could see better growth momentum and benefitEPIA/SAND/ATCOA(all OW), but we will also watch for any step-up in Chinese competition for these names, Macro – two 'chicken and egg' problems.The continually 'reactive' approach of the Chinesegovernment implies that big stimulus remains unlikely, in our view. With exports havingsupported economic growth so far, any slowdown in exports in 2026 will imply a need for Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 19.Completed: 14-Jan-26, 15:40 GMTReleased: 15-Jan-26, 04:00 GMT another driver – and we would expect domestic demand to be viewed as the answer (given thegovernment appears to be prioritising it over industrial goods at present). However, withproperty prices (proxy for wealth) and wage expectations/job security (proxy for spendingpower) determining factors for consumption, we see two 'chicken and egg' problems here: 1) What has changed positively vs. half a year ago? 1)Inconstructionsome better cash flowsfor the SOE contractor despite muted investment/demand, suggesting that customers (e.g.local governments) might have better CF too (e.g. from bond issues) and we wait to see whetherthese flow into new projects.2)The semi equipment supplier believes 2026 ChinasemiWFE What has changed negatively vs. half a year ago? 1)People are more bearish on theproperty market, with further declines in 2026 a more consensus view – the question now appears to be whether 2027 see an improvement or whether a new equilibrium is still far from reach.2)Weheard increasing concerns over policy-driven changes to demand – e.g. anti-involutionaffecting automotivevolumes and hence curtailing expansion plans, scope forfading subsidiestoaffectdemand forindustrial products(e.g.PIMMs) andconsumer goods(e.g.auto).3)The automationdistributor sees demand slowing until 2027.4)There is an increased threat from Chinese players trying to expand overseas footprints with new capacity in Europe –e.g. inwind, Growth drivers are few, and mainly in certain emerging areas.We think 2026's growth inChina could be more concentrated in selected areas, including 'emerging verticals' suchashumanoids,data centers,semis (equipment)andwarehouse automation(although notin China), pluscables(electrification)andmining(commodity prices). However, we expect most other end markets to see stable or even tougher environments, with deceleration likely in Ongoing/rising threats from Chinese players' overseas expansion...:1)Theoffshorewind OEM is working hard to get project approval for its Scotland turbine factory, and seeing moreorder wins overseas.2)The leadingcablemaker is thinking about a production base in Europe,though it will take a few years to get online even if it mater