什么在驱动高频外汇交易？

Date17 March 2026 Foreign ExchangeFX Blog What is driving high-frequency FX? Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist WhileFXmarketsandvolatilityhave been relatively muted despite dramaticswings in oil markets, the connectivity from equities to FX has been steadilyincreasing. For example, over the past week, we've observed a slight pick-up inthe number of currencies driven by EM equities. Consequently, EM equitiescontinue to be the primary driver of high-frequency FX moves, affecting over 70% Christabel CharlesResearch Analyst Impact of key asset classes on FX:EM equities primarily influenceUSD/JPY,NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/ZAR and USD/CNH,while US equities remain the keydriver forUSD/TRY.Both US and EM equities influence USD/CHF and USD/SGD,whereas USD/MXN is driven by Oil and EM equities. Finally, USD/CAD is solely Historical impact of key asset classes on FX:Over the past three months,historical data indicates that US equities consistently influenced USD/CHF,GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, and NZD/USD on over 80% of days. Concurrently, EMequities and Oil collectively drove EUR/NOK on 70% of days during the same Contemporaneous effects between FX and other asset classes:A strong positivecorrelation exists between US(EM)equities and AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR, SGD, andMXNversustheUSD. Similarly, US rates demonstratea positive correlation withthe SGD, JPY, CHF, and Antipodean currencies against the dollar, while Oil is also Based on correlation-based Minimum Spanning Trees,VIXremained as thedominant contemporaneous driver of high-frequency FX movements, with US Figure1,Figure3andFigure15look at causality in FX.Figure1shows the currencieswhose moves can be statistically predicted by other asset classes.Figure3ranksthe drivers of FX (highest to lowest number of currencies, driven by a given asset).Figure15shows the relative importance of each asset in driving a given currencyin the recent period.Figure13looks at contemporaneous correlations. We showthe top 3 correlations between FX pairs and other asset classes.Figure14shows Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters; 4-week rolling average connections Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters; Total number of currencies = 19 Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters; 4-week rolling average connections Figure14:Cross-currency correlation Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. Theydo not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bankprovides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research term ratings. Some trade ideas for equities are listed as Catalyst Calls on the Research Website(https://research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on the general coverage list and also on the coveredcompany's page. A Catalyst Call represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform or