什么在驱动高频外汇交易？

What is driving high-frequency FX? Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-754-75907 Main highlights of the High-Frequency monitor:Over the past week, copper'sinfluence on FX has gained considerable traction, now impacting close to 50% ofthe currencies in our sample.US equities, despite their marginal lead, persist asthe primary driver, given their critical influence on FX movements around month-end.We've also observed a slight increase in the impact of both the VIX and USinterest rates, while emerging market equities maintain their previous level ofinfluence over various currencies.Overall, last week saw abiggerimpact of otherasset classes onFX compared to prior weeks. Christabel CharlesResearch Analyst Impact of key asset classes on FX:Analysis of FX driversrevealthat Copper is thedominant factor for XBT/USD, USD/ZAR, and USD/CNH. For XAU/USD andUSD/SGD, both US equities and Copper play a significant role.Major currencypairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CHFarecurrentlybeinginfluenced byUS equities. Digging deeper into specific pairs:AUD/JPY is currently the most sensitivecurrency pair. Its high-frequency movements are driven byAU, US and EMequities along withUS rates, Copper and VIX.AUD/USD is the second mostsensitive pair being driven byAU, US, EM equities and Copper Historical impact ofUS equitieson FX:Over the last three months, historical datashows US equities influenced USD/CHF and USD/ZAR on over 70% of days.Copper affected USD/CNH and USD/ZARon approximately 40% of days.Separately, EM equities impacted EUR/NOK and EUR/PLN on about 50% of days. Contemporaneous effects between FX and other asset classes:US equities showstrongpositive correlations with XBT/USD,the Antipodean currencies,AUD/JPY, and XAU/USD. Copper also has a strong positive correlation with goldand the Antipodean, while exhibiting a strong negative correlation with USD/CADand USD/ZAR. Separately, EM equities are strongly and positively correlated withAUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD. Figure1,Figure3andFigure13look at causality in FX.Figure1shows the currencieswhose moves can be statistically predicted by other asset classes.Figure3ranksthe drivers of FX (highest to lowest number of currencies, driven by a given asset).Figure13shows the relative importance of each asset in driving a given currencyin the recent period.Figure11looks at contemporaneous correlations. We showthe top 3 correlations between FX pairs and other asset classes.Figure12showsintra-FX correlations. We use Granger causality tests to measure causality. Allstatistics measured at 5-minute frequency. For further details, please see ourupdatedmethodology. For a summary of ourFX quant tools, please also see DBFX research quant tools. Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research * % of days since 1st April 2021 each currency isdriven by other assets. For example, USDCHF is driven by US rates 60% of the days. Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters We compute daily correlations using log pricechanges sampled at 5 minutes frequency and take an average of the daily correlationsover the past five days to arrive at the final 5-day correlation numbers. Source:Deutsche Bank Research * % of days since 1st April 2021 each currency isdriven by other assets. For example, USDCHF is driven by US rates 60% of the days. Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters. We compute daily correlations using log pricechanges sampled at 5 minutes frequency and take an average of the daily correlationsover the past five days to arrive at the final 5-day correlation numbers. Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters We compute daily correlations using log pricechanges sampled at 5 minutes frequency and take an average of the daily correlationsover the past five days to arrive at the final 5-day correlation numbers. Figure12:Cross-currency correlation Source:Deutsche Bank Research 3 February 2026FX Blog 3 February 2026FX Blog Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in this report. Rohini Grover, Ph.D.. Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,please visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors arestrongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 3 February 2026FX Blog Additional Informat