什么在驱动高频外汇交易？

What is driving high-frequency FX? Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-754-75907 Compared to last week, the biggest change in FXdrivers has been a moderatepick-up in copper's influence, as it now drives more currencies. US equities,however, remain the top driver, impacting the highest number of currency pairs.Conversely, the influence of EM equities has somewhat weakened, affectingfewer currencies. Christabel CharlesResearch Analyst Impact of key asset classes on FX:Copper emerges as the dominant driver forUSD/CNH, XAU/USD, and XBT/USD. In contrast, US equities primarily influenceNZD/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/SGD. Historical impact of key asset classes on FX:Over the past three months,historical data reveals that US equities influenced USD/CHF, NZD/USD, andGBP/USD on over 70% of days. Simultaneously, Copper impacted USD/ZAR,XBT/USD, and AUD/USD on approximately 40% of days. Finally, EM equitiescontinued todrive EUR/NOK on more than 70% of days over the same period. Contemporaneous effects between FX and other asset classes:US and EMequities continue to exhibit a strong positive correlation with AUD, NZD, MXN,ZAR, CADagainst the dollar, AUD/JPY andbitcoin. Copper consistently shows arobust positive correlation with XAU, NZD, AUD, ZAR, and MXN against thedollar. Based on correlation-based Minimum Spanning Trees, EM equities consistentlystandout as the dominant contemporaneous driver of high-frequency FXmovements, with VIX and US rates emerging as significant secondary drivers. Digging deeper into specific pairs: AUD/USD:The pair ismostimpacted byother asset classes, particularly byAU,US, and EM equities, alongside copper and oil. EUR/NOK:Ranking as the second top currency pair, EUR/NOK is influenced byEuropean equities and rates, EM equities, and oil. JPY pairs:AUD/JPY is driven by Australian and US equities, US rates, andcopper, while USD/JPY is influenced by US and EMequities. Gold:Gold's primary driver is identified as Copper,maintaining robustcorrelationswith US equities, EM equities, and Copper. Figure1,Figure3andFigure13look at causality in FX.Figure1shows the currencieswhose moves can be statistically predicted by other asset classes.Figure3ranksthe drivers of FX (highest to lowest number of currencies, driven by a given asset).Figure13shows the relative importance of each asset in driving a given currencyin the recentperiod.Figure11looks at contemporaneous correlations. We showthe top 3 correlations between FX pairs and other asset classes.Figure12Error!Reference source not found.shows intra-FX correlations. We use Granger causalitytests to measure causality.All statistics measured at 5-minutefrequency. For further details, please see our updatedmethodology. For asummary of ourFX quant tools, please also see DB FX research quant tools. 23 February 2026FX Blog Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters We compute daily correlations using log pricechanges sampled at 5 minutes frequency and take an average of the daily correlationsover the past five days to arrive at the final 5-day correlation numbers. Source:Deutsche Bank Research * % of days since 1st April 2021 each currency isdriven by other assets. For example, USDCHF is driven by US rates 60% of the days. Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters. We compute daily correlations using log pricechanges sampled at 5 minutes frequency and take an average of the daily correlationsover the past five days to arrive at thefinal 5-day correlation numbers. Source:Deutsche Bank, EBS, Reuters We compute daily correlations using log pricechanges sampled at 5 minutes frequency and take an average of the daily correlationsover the past five days to arrive at thefinal 5-day correlation numbers. Figure11:Cross-assetcorrelation Figure12:Cross-currency correlation 23 February 2026FX Blog 23 February 2026FX Blog Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in this report. Rohini Grover, Ph.D.. Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,please visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors arestrongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 23 February 2026FX Blog Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of