是什么推动了高频外汇交易？

What is driving high-frequency FX? Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-754-75907 The connectivity from other asset classes to FX has picked up following the recentsurge in geopolitical risks. EM equities, having fallen more than developed equitymarkets, have emerged as the top driver of high-frequency FX moves, influencingaround 60%of the total currencies in our sample. US equities, only slightly below,alsocontinueto influence numerous currency pairs. Oil remains a top driver, butitsdirect influence on currencies is limited to EUR/NOK,EUR/USD,andUSD/CNH. Christabel CharlesResearch Analyst Impact of key asset classes on FX:EM equities primarily influence USD/CAD,USD/ZAR, and USD/TRY, while US equities remain the key driver for NZD/USD.GBP/USD is influenced by both US and EM equities, USD/JPY is driven byCopper and EM equities, and USD/CNH is driven by Oil and EM equities. Historical impact of key asset classes on FX:Over the past three months,historicaldata reveals that US equities continued to influence USD/CHF,NZD/USD, and GBP/USD on more than 80% of days. Concurrently, EM equitiesconsistently droveEUR/NOK on about80% of days over the same period, whileUS rates impactedAUD/JPY and USD/CHF on approximately 50% of days. Contemporaneous effects between FX and other asset classes: US and EMequities remain strongly positively correlated with AUD, NZD, MXN,SGD,andZAR against thedollar, while US rates appear to be positively correlated to JPY,CHF, SGD, EUR, and GBP against the dollar. Based on correlation-based Minimum Spanning Trees,VIX emerged as thedominant contemporaneous driver of high-frequency FX movements, with USrates emerging asasignificant secondary driver. Figure1,Figure3andFigure15look at causality in FX.Figure1shows the currencieswhose moves can be statistically predicted by other asset classes.Figure3ranksthe drivers of FX (highest to lowest number of currencies, driven by a given asset).Figure15shows the relative importance of each asset in driving a given currencyin the recent period.Figure13looks at contemporaneous correlations. We showthe top 3 correlations between FX pairs and other asset classes.Figure14showsintra-FX correlations. We use Granger causality tests to measure causality. Allstatistics measured at 5-minute frequency. For further details, please see ourupdatedmethodology. For a summary of ourFX quant tools, please also see DBFX research quant tools. Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Figure13:Cross-asset correlation Figure14:Cross-currency correlation 10 March 2026FX Blog 10 March 2026FX Blog Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in thisreport. Rohini Grover, Ph.D.. Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,please visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors arestrongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 10 March 2026FX Blog Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks tothird-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses thecontent nor is responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, DeutscheBank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may