2026年全球展望 大局变迁

20261 469 全球市場正處於一個迅速變革階段，覆蓋貨幣、財政、地緣政治和科技領域，逐步轉型到一個最終形態尚未明朗的全新格局。 101214 Mika Kastenholz 18202426283032 34 “”(Punctuated Equilibrium) LGT Mika Kastenholz 2025 2026 2026 “” “” 人工智能杠鈴策略：推動者與應用者 (Hyperscalers) “” (AgenticAI)(Physical AI) “”OpenAI20261 “”2 ChatGPT 數字資產：逐漸成熟？還是未成氣候？ 4 20255123 2 (ETF) 1 2(Optimalallocation to cryptocurrencies in diversified portfolios)Risk.netArtur Sepp202311 “”(Positive Skew)(Normal Distribution) 水資源稀缺：全球挑戰 90%Rio Tinto 5 (GDP)31% 6 62050 聚焦區域觀點 12 2026 50022.136%202616%720008“”(One Big Beautiful Bill)15%11%) 2.5% GPD20251.7%20262.1% 2 9 20247—Nigel FarageZack Polanski202982026“” (G7)100220 202520247 2026 113.2%2%20263.25%5% 20262026 2025MSCI10 122025MSCI3%9%8% 11 20261.6% 20261139%15%2025 2026 2026 142026 2026 2026GPD1.3% 1.3%—GPD1%13 200.6%2% —2026— MSCI202612% 3%— 20005%12%16 “”2025 59%64%47.5%57% 15 20081.2813 1990=1001990 “”—11202618 20249,250770201917 199020005%GPD“” 202520243.55,24020%1.72025110100 GPD 2%2028 (business process outsourcing (BPO))202020 GPD 20252,80014,0005%—50%19 2026 FMALandstrasse 109, P.O. Box 279, 9490 Vaduz,LiechtensteinFMAOtto-Wagner-Platz 5, 1090Vienna, Austria 10 Shenton Way, MASBuilding, Singapore 079117 2025112820251219 -LGT Wealth Management Trust Inc.The Okura Prestige Tower 9F, 2-10-4 Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0001,Japan -L G T B a n k A G , Z w e i g n i e d e r l a s s u n gDeutschlandMaximilianstr. 13,8 0 5 3 9 M u n i c h , G e r m a n yFMALandstrasse 109, P.O.Box 279, 9490 Vaduz, LiechtensteinBundesanstalt fürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht BaFinGraurheindorfer Str. 108, 53117 Bonn,Germany, Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439Frankfurt am Main, Germany LIECHTENSTEIN. The Princely Collections, Vaduz–Vienna; anucha sirivisansuwan/Shutterstock.com5Raphael Zubler6–7Andrea Izzotti/Shutterstock.com, Melnikov Dmitriy/Shutterstock.com, Feng Yu/Shutterstock.com,AUUSanAKUL/Shutterstock.com, New Africa/Shutterstock.com, Zbitnev/Shutterstock.com, Collab Media/Shutterstock.com,TAKASHI SUZUKI/Shutterstock.com, Andy.LIU/Shutterstock.com, Maha Heang 245789/Shutterstock.com,Volodymyr TVERDOKHLIB/Shutterstock.com, Dmitrii Shirinkin/Shutterstock.com8ShutterPlus/Shutterstock.com11panumas nikhomkhai/Shutterstock.com13musicman/Shutterstock.com15chaogeng/Shutterstock.com17iStock.com/shansekala23ESB Professional/Shutterstock.com -LGT Securities (Thailand) Ltd.57 Park Ventures Ecoplex, Level 21, Units2101-2103 & 2112, Wireless Road, Lumpini,Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, ThailandSEC333/3 Vibhavadi-Rangsit Road, Chomphon, ChatuchakBangkok 10900, Thailand -LGT Wealth Management UK LLPF C AOC32939214 Cornhill,London, EC3V 3NR -L G T B a n k A G ,U K B r a n c h14 Cornhill, London EC3V 3NR, UnitedKingdomF M ALandstrasse 109, P.O. Box 279, 9490 Vaduz,LiechtensteinFCA12 Endeavour Square,London E20 1JN, United KingdomLGT Bank AG (FRN 959424)FCALGT Bank AGPRA -LGT Wealth Management LimitedFCASC317950Capital Square, 58 Morrison Street,Edinburgh, EH3 8BP Dr. Mika Kastenholz, Global Head Investment SolutionsSanjay Rijhsinghani, Head Investment Solutions UKPatrick Huber, Head Investment Solutions EuropeDr. Alexander Gruber, Equity Strategist, EuropeAndrew Patrick, CFA, Head Direct Portfolios, UKDr. Artur Sepp, Head Quantitative AnalyticsCedric Baur, Equity Specialist, EuropeJeremy Sterngold, CFA, Deputy CIO UKPhilipp Lisibach, CFA, Head Investment Strategy & Themes, EuropeReto Hess, CFA, Head Equity Strategy, EuropeSebastian Petric, CFA, Senior FX Strategist, EuropeSimon Weiss, CFA, Head Fixed Income Strategy, EuropeStefan Hofer, Chief Investment Strategist, APACTina Jessop, CFA, Senior Economist, EuropeTobias Aellig, CFA, Senior Equity Specialist, EuropeDr. Wolfgang von Hessling, Chief Economist, Europe -LGT Wealth Management Jersey Limited102243Sir Walter Raleigh House, 48-50Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE2 3QBLGTWealth Management (CI) Limited5769IFC1,The Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey, JE1 4BP 5835EU 1286/2014PRIIPS KID -LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.LangeGasse 15, 4002 Basel, SwitzerlandFINMALaupenstrasse 27, 3003Berne, Switzerland -LGT Wealth Management US LimitedFCASEC0645524014 Cornhill,London, EC3V 3NR -LGT (Middle East) Ltd.The GateBuilding (East), Level 4, P.O. Box 506793,Dubai, United Arab Emirates1308DFSADFSALevel13, West Wing, The Gate, P.O. Box 75850,Dubai, UAE -LGT Wealth Management Limited (ABN 50005 311 937, AFS Licence No. 231127)Level 32, Chifley Tower, 2 ChifleySquare, Sydney NSW 2000 -LGT Bank AG824203FMALandstrasse 109,P.O. Box 279, 9490 Vaduz, Liechtenstein82551854LGTBank AG -LGT Wealth India Pvt. Ltd.7th Floor, A Block, Shiv Sagar Estate, Worli,Mumbai 400018 Content and PublicationsAlessandro Fezzi, Antonia Strachwitz, Dominique Stutz, Shane Strowmatt LGT (Middle East) Ltd. LGT Group Holding Ltd.Herrengasse12, 9490 Vaduz, Liechtenstein LGT (Middle East) Ltd.DFSALGT (Middle East) Ltd.DFSADFSAThe Gate Building(East), Level 4, P.O. Box 506793, Dubai, UnitedArab Emir