2026年全球投资展望报告：韧性与再平衡

Quarterly update from Invesco’sStrategy & Insights Team9November2025 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only. The Big PictureGlobal Asset Allocation 2026 Outlook We expect the global economy to accelerate during 2026. Coupled with Fed easing and aweaker dollar, we expect this to favour cyclical assets. We reduce government bonds andinvestment grade credit to slightly Underweight within our Model Asset Allocation, while raisinghigh yield to Neutral. We add AAA-rated CLOs (collateralised loan obligations) to ourframework, preferring it to cash within the cash equivalents category. Among regions, wecontinue to favour emerging market and European assets. Model asset allocation In our view: ▪Commodities should benefit as the global economy improves. We stay at the Maximum.▪Real estate (REITS) may benefit as rates falland economies accelerate.We remainOverweight.▪Bank loans offer an attractive risk-reward trade-off. Westay at theMaximum.▪Corporate high yield (HY) spreadsare tight but may remain so. Weincrease to Neutral.▪Government bond yield direction will be mixed. We reduce to slightly Underweight.▪Corporate investment grade (IG) has a similar profile to government bonds. We reduce to Underweight.▪Equities have rebounded and weremainUnderweight (Underweight the US, Overweight non-US).▪Cash equivalentsUnderweight, with the newly introducedAAA-ratedCLOspreferred to cash.▪Gold may be helped byasoftdollarbutgeopoliticsare improving,and itis expensive. We remain at Zero.▪Regionally, we favourEuropeand EM.▪US dollaris likelytoweaken and wemaintainthepartialhedge into JPY. Our best-in-class assets (based on12mprojectedreturns) ▪China equities▪JapanREITS▪Industrial commodities▪Europeanbank loans Table of contents Summary and conclusions: A barbell embrace of risk.......................................................................................4Model asset allocation*...........................................................................................................................................5A glance in the rear-view mirror.............................................................................................................................6Politics in2026: Another pivotal year in the US...................................................................................................7Economic momentum: improving, despite concerns about the US..................................................................8Inflation: No longer trending down and could become an issue.......................................................................9Policy rates: desynchronised cycles..................................................................................................................10Fiscal policy: mildly supportive in some regions during 2026.........................................................................11Asset momentum: cyclical assets outperformed over the last three months................................................12Asset valuations: short duration assets still have a yield advantage.............................................................13Currency outlook: US dollar expected to weaken further.................................................................................15Threats, opportunities and risk appetite assessment.......................................................................................16Projections and asset preferences......................................................................................................................17The long term view: focusing on the next decade using Invesco’s CMAs.....................................................19Appendices............................................................................................................................................................20Appendix 1: Global valuations vs history.............................................................................................................20Appendix 2: Asset class total returns...................................................................................................................21Appendix 3: Invesco 10-year Capital Market Assumptions (USD version).........................................................22Appendix 4: Key assumptions..............................................................................................................................23Appendix 5: Methodology for asset allocation and expected returns..................................................................24Appendix 6: Definitions of data and benchmarks................................................................................................25Appendix 7: Invesco Solutions Capital Market Assumptions methodology.........................................................28Investment risks.....................................................................................................