2026年全球投资展望报告：主题与机遇

Foreword In recent years, the foundations of the globaleconomy have begun to shift in ways that fewcould have anticipated even a decade ago. Theassumptions that once anchored market confidencein the post-Cold War era, unencumbered trade,coordinated monetary policy, action on threats to The emergence of human-grade artificial generalintelligence (“AGI”) in 2026, predicted by the CEOs of two of the largest AI companies1, would be a pivotal moment in Globalization is faltering as regionalblocs solidify.Trade tensions are testing long-standing alliances, andgeopolitical uncertainty has become aconstant feature.Climate progress falters, and for every twosteps forward,there is one backwards: an economic tippingpoint hasbeen reached in clean energy capacity andgreen mobility Powerful and intersecting forces from Artificial Intelligence(AI) to regionalization are reshaping the contours ofglobal markets. AI is improving at a dizzying pace, solving This year’s theme, “Post consensus”, captures a landscapein which the norms that guided portfolio construction,risk management, and strategic allocation for decades The themes we present here carry with them differingdegrees of opportunity (and risk) and this will be priced-infor some more than others. Investors will need to balance Yet disruption does not solely spell risk. Periods ofuncertainty and dislocation often open the door toopportunity for investors with the flexibility and foresightto recognize where value is shifting. The challenge and Some of the themes will only be suitable for investorswith high levels of governance capacity and requisite This year, the report is divided into eight sections, pullingout a selection of our underlying investment themes thatplay out across different timeframes and pathways, but These are: Through the course of this paper, we outline some ofthe key themes and opportunities we see over the nextfive years and beyond. To make sense of this evolving •The search for safer havens•Re-building blocs•Resources and resilience •Regime change:One-off, enduring shiftsin conditions.•Supercycles:Classic economic supercycles (debt andcommodity cycles) and the supercycle of socioeconomicparadigms (Kondratieff waves orStrauss-Howe saecula2). The search for safer havens While currencies can lose their defensive qualities followingmajor political shifts – sterling’s post-Brexit experiencebeing a notable example – the recent move toward the Periods of uncertainty have always driven investors towardsafe havens. The US dollar has filled that role for decades,reliably rallying when markets turned risk-off. At the timeof writing, while the dollar still trades near multi-decadehighs as capital seeks stability, its behavior has grown lessconsistent. Commentators have referred to the USD’s ‘smile’(referring to the USD’s tendency to benefit from risk-on A structural boost to US dollar demand has arrived in theform of US dollar stablecoins as other blocs prefer to focuson central bank digital currencies. This year saw the arrivalof regulatory clarity courtesy of the GENIUS Act, driving The shift in dollar behavior suggests more than tacticalrepositioning. It points to the fragility of a monetary orderthat has underpinned markets since Bretton Woods. Thepost-gold standard era, with the dollar as unrivalled reservecurrency, is now being tested by heavy debt burdens,persistent inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and gradual In a post-consensus world, the issue is no longer whetherthe dollar is strong today, but whether its dominance andcurrent position will endure as investors consider where toland during flights to quality. As all eyes have been on thedollar, it is worth noting that the use of the euro In this evolving landscape, investors may need to reassesscurrency hedging strategies, particularly as the dollar’s rolecontinues to evolve. Traditional stores of value, such asagricultural land and gold, are also reemerging as potential Influence over financial thinking is changing rapidly. Thecomedian Amy Poehler joked this year that, “Boomersare all about money. Gen X is like: ‘Is it all about money?’Millennials ask: ‘Where is the money?’ And Gen Z is like:‘What is money?’”. Increasingly, investors, particularly call from Friederic Hayek to privatize money3and breathingnew life into it via blockchain technology or simply giving into the ‘Fear Of Missing Out’ that characterizes speculativemanias? Either way, a growing counter-narrative to We disagree with that conclusion. History suggests thatreserve currency status tends to outlast the geopoliticaldominance of its issuer. Still, narratives are powerful,especially when amplified by sentiment-driven, retail- Bitcoin remains outside our strategic asset allocations givenits limited intrinsic value, inefficiency for payments, high In traditional markets, fixed income portfolios continueto serve as a stabilizing force. Interest rates haveremained relatively stable in recent months, and e