2026年全球房地产展望：AI时代的房地产：绘制未来图景

Introduction by structural changes. The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI)is an increasingly important theme – one which is beginningto dramatically change our world and have widespreadconsequences for the sector.The release of ChatGPT in November 2022 is widely seen asThis is the bigger picture – how AI will increasingly be usedin our everyday lives and which therefore will influence andchange when, where and how real estate of all kinds will beused and required.Wecan look at different areas of people’s lives and a pivotal moment for making AI mainstream. Over the threeyears since then, there have been rapid advancements inthe capability of AI which has, in turn, created a global rushto integrate AI solutions across industries.When people consider what AI means for real estate,their first thought might be about the requirement andcontemplate how AI will affect each of these areas. In thispaper, the well-established triptych of ‘live, work and play’is supplemented by a fourth category: ‘thrive’. growth potential for data centres alongside wider digitalinfrastructure. But data centres simply house and makeaccessible the computer power required to enable AI tobe used by people and businesses in the wider world, in WorkWhat job types and economic sectors are ThriveWithageing populations,what impact PlayWhat consumer habits will define spare LiveWhatare households’preferred living impacted by the adoption of AI and howwill economic opportunity be distributedin the future? As professional roles aretransformed and yet navigating ambiguity,trust and collaboration becomes imperative,weforeseetalentandbusinessescongregatingin fewer but larger globalhubs at the expense of secondary locations.Bifurcation of office markets will intensify. will AI have on longevity and the provisionofhealthcare services?We anticipatea growing active senior population due toAI-led healthcare breakthroughs, changinghowhealth services are provided,anincreasein residential demand globallyand more fractional, part-time or advisoryprofessional roles. time preferences in a period of further AIintegration? Augmented reality will makeretail predictive and personalised, drivingdemandfor smarter,more immersivestores.AI companions may increasesocial isolation and therefore the need forauthentic,in-person leisure.Automatedlogistics and autonomous vehicles couldenhance the value of peripheral distributionmega-hubs and lead to the repurposing ofcentrally located car parks. locationsandaccommodationtypeswithin a shifting employment landscape?For the living sectors – including studenthousing,multifamily and senior living,structural supply-demand imbalances willpersist or even increase in locations withabundantjobs,culture and experiences,whileextendedindependentlivingboostsdemandforamenity-richsenior communities. with likely profound impacts in both the short and long termacross societies and on the real estate used by individualsand businesses. Even in an increasingly fractured world,businesses and talent maintain some degree of mobilityand will converge in locations that offer attractive enddestinations for a more AI-integrated future.people and corporations, influencing how they interactwith real estate. Not all effects are obvious and there aremany uncertainties over how events play out, but realestate owners should start thinking about how these newstructural shifts impact their portfolios and investmentstrategies moving forward. The links between ‘work’ and ‘live’ locations, for example,may be altered by AI, but there will still be a fundamentalconnectionvia commuting patterns.‘Thrive’and‘play’interact across a range of locations and activities, such asin mixed-use developments which could combine retail andhealthcare occupiers. Work: The evolution of employment Key takeawaysProfessionalroles will be transformed as Uneven impact on the workforceJobs like data entry, scheduling and the elements of customer there has been ongoing debate about its impact on thelabourmarket,particularly whether it is beginning tosupplant human labour. According to an IMF study, 60% ofjobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI1. Of these,half are expected to be negatively impacted, while halfstand to benefit from higher productivity from AI integrationor augmentation. On a global scale, nearly 40% of all jobsare likely to be affected as the technology is increasinglyassimilated in business processes.Areas and roles involving tasks such as coding, languageservice which entail repetitive data processing face near-termobsolescenceas AI’s accuracy and scalability improve.Other jobs that involve innovation with a fair bit of complexitysuch as breakthrough R&D could be more resilient (albeit AIwill increasingly be involved). AI is also likely to struggle when itcomes to replicating roles that require emotional intelligence,human trust and navigating ambiguity.Based on company-level analysis by Seyed Hosseini and GuyLichtinger at Harvard University, early