2026年全球私人市场趋势（英）

Global Private MarketTrends in 2026 SVB’s Global Outlook on the Innovation Economy January 2026 Contents 3Executive Summary4VC and Founder Perspectives6The US Looks Inward10Defense Tech Escapes the Penalty Box Where Innovation Moves, Capital Follows Global innovation continues to adapt at break-neck speeds as investors and founders reactto a constantly evolving policy and geopolitical landscape. However, technological progressand the beginnings of interest rate easing have shifted attention back toward risk assets, with The innovation ecosystem is reorganizing.Defense tech, once considered outside theventure mainstream, has moved sharply into focus. The European market has become aproving ground for dual-use and frontier technologies, reinforced by rising government spend We are confident thatinnovators andinvestors globally arewell positioned to Meanwhile,AI continues to accelerate across every geography.In China, while ventureinvestment remains low, Chinese AI models rank among the best in the world, and theiracademic research outstrips the US. Europe as well has emerged as a meaningful hub — not The liquidity landscape is evolving, too. While exit markets remain inconsistent across regions,many emerging markets are finding their own momentum. India, for example, is unlocking adurable IPO and capital-recycling environment that is fueling its next generation of companies. Through all of this, one constant remains:innovation thrives when ecosystems stayconnected.We are confident that innovators and investors globally are well positioned to Andy TsaoManaging DirectorHead of Global Gateway Perspectives on the Global Innovation Economy Asia’s Role as Innovation Hub Europe Has All the Ingredients “From an ecosystem perspective, Europe hasall the ingredients — talent, capital, buyersand supportive governments. You have a fewcycles of successful startups that have gone “Asia now plays a critical and increasinglymultidimensional role in the global AI landscape.Traditionally known for possessing the world’s largestuser base, the region has long been a massiveconsumer market. But its influence is rapidly moving Xiao HongCEO Paul MurphyPartner LatAm’s Talent Bench Grows India’s Structural Tech Edge A Higher Bar For Israeli Cyber “Human capital has historically been a frictionpoint for companies to grow in Latin America, butover the past five years we've seen that frictionhas turned into fuel. Founders across the region “India’s talent pool for AI and engineering isvery deep, and its digital infrastructure isunparalleled. Combined with a largeentrepreneurial base and supportive policy, this “Wiz’s exit was great for the Israeli ecosystem.A major exit raises the bar and signals tofounders what’s possible. It also draws moreinvestors to market and encourages founders Vani KolaManaging Director Ana MartinsPartner Click Through to Key Takeaways Founders and investors react tomacrochangesvia venture debt and FX hedging. Secondariesemerge in the exit malaise,with Europe taking center stage. Jump to Page International companies areopeningUS officeslater than they used to. Israel’scyberAIecosystem is bolsteredby massive liquidity events. The US Looks Inward Managers Adapt to The macro backdrop has shifted meaningfully over the past18 months. Lower interest rates and the expectation ofsustained cuts have provided a needed tailwind for risk But the green shoots come with thorns. Policy uncertaintyhas spiked, particularly from trade realignments and tariffshocks. Fund managers see this change in the macroenvironment differently than the rate hikes in 2022. Afterthe first rate hike, higher FX volatility led to a moderate Fund Managers Address Tariff-Induced Currency Volatility via Increased FX Hedging It is not just the managers adapting to the changing macrolandscape. Companies are too. Rising rates limited theavailability of equity financing for venture-backedcompanies, leading many to pursue venture debt. Despitebeing more expensive outside the US, venture debt dealvalue surged in places like Europe, where 2025 volume is The Geography ofCapital Flows Fundraising continued its downward trend in 2025, butone country stood out from the rest: China. China continues to struggle due to LP risk aversion,geopolitical uncertainty and prolonged difficulty realizingexits. By contrast, the US has stabilized as the AI boomcontinues, with fundraising in 2025 within 10% of 2024levels. While most of the capital is provided by domesticLPs, a meaningful share flows from Europe and Asia. TheMiddle East makes up an increasingly important portionof VC fundraising. Often, these LP checks come with Secondaries Emerge in the Exit Malaise, withEurope at Center Stage When it comes to deployment, US VCs are laser-focusedon proven tech hubs. Investment in developed markets isconcentrated in Europe — especially Germany and theUK. But even with rising deployment, liquidity is scarce.Traditional IPO and M&A activi