早上洞察：2026年2月3日

Morning Insight:February 3, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Joint View on the Base Metals Sector:The current systemic downturnacross the precious metals and base metals complex is mainly driven by arenewed bout of market anxiety over an overseas AI bubble, compounded byan unexpected adjustment in expectations surrounding the incoming FederalReserve leadership—Warsh is widely viewed as a pragmatist with afundamentally hawkish bias, raising the possibility of a policy mix that is expected to drive sustained incremental demand, while global coppermine supply disruptions are intensifying due to labor disputes in Chile, downstreamrestocking demand has been released to some extent, and thismay provide support to tin prices. Aluminum, over the medium term, alsobenefits from rigid supply constraints and an increasingly diversified Gold and Silver:Yesterday, gold, silver, platinum, and palladiumaccelerated sharply to the downside. As we pointed out over the weekend,when gold and silver rise at a pace far beyond historical norms, aviolent correction is only a matter of time. The sustained sell-off that however, this move served more as a justification for panic selling, withthe essence of the move still rooted in extreme trading dynamics. From alogical perspective, gold may find support after retracing its entire Stock Index Futures:Short-term stabilization and rebound are likely. Inthe thematic report“Review and Insights of the‘Spring Rally’”released on January 12, 2026, we reviewed the core drivers behind the endof past“spring rally”phases and pointed out that historically,corrections in such rallies were mainly driven by two factors, internaland external: a marginal tightening or shift in policy stance, and Silver April”window for real demand and macro data verification, and therelease of listed companies’financial reports. At present, the firststage outlined in our January report has essentially played out.In the short term, with gold and silver stabilizing overnight, andfollowing yesterday’s sharper-than-expected sell-off, the market may seea process of bottoming and rebound, with range-bound fluctuations likely Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. A system of standards for the low-altitude economy is expected to be The guidelines state that by 2030, there will be more than 300 standardsfor the low-altitude economy, and a structurally optimized, advanced, development. The standards system will cover the entire industrial chain, including China's low-altitude economy has entered a period of acceleratedindustrialization, forming a complete industrial ecosystem that spans The guidelines were released by the State Administration for Market 2. The coal-rich province of Shanxi in north China witnessed itsinstalled capacity of new and clean energy exceed that of coal-fired Last year, the installed capacity of new and clean energy hit 90.48gigawatts, an increase of 18.29 gigawatts year on year, accounting for During the period from 2021 to 2025, installed power capacity in Shanxihad reached 164 gigawatts, with electricity generated in Shanxi supplied Shanxi saw its annual new energy generation surpass 100 billion kWh forthe first time in 2025, reaching 118 billion kWh, said the State Grid The province has been transforming former coal-mining subsidence areas,which are characterized by the ground subsiding and collapsing after Over the next five years, Shanxi will continue to vigorously advance its energy transition and strive to add 100 million kilowatts of renewable energy capacity, the session noted. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,weakened 17 pips to 6.9695 against the U.S. dollar Monday, according to Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions