早上洞察：2026年3月4日

Morning Insight:March 4, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Tin:There are two core drivers behind this round of decline. First, newsrelated to the resumption of production in the Wa region of Myanmarexceeded market expectations, affecting perceptions of the turning pointfrom tight to looser fundamentals. On February27, the Wa State From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, short-term tightnessin the mining segment has not materially changed, with both year-on-year holiday, and following the price pullback, restocking demand in the spotmarket has shown some recovery. In terms of inventories, current visible Looking ahead, we believe that during sharp declines, downstream demandmay provide some support. However, weakening macro sentiment is likely toremain the dominant driver of tin prices. As a commodity facing marginal Lithium carbonate:Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures closed at thedaily limit down, with the market mainly reacting to concerns over Middle In 2026, newly installed energy storage capacity in the Middle East isexpected to reach 40 GWh, up 100% year-on-year, accounting for 8% ofglobal installations. This translates to approximately 24,000 tons oflithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year, representing about 1% of consultancy estimates suggest a month-on-month increase of around 25%, On the overseas supply side, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines and MiningDevelopment issued a statement announcing an immediate suspension ofexports of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates until further In the short term, lithium carbonate is trading in line with the broaderpullback in risk assets and concerns over potential shipping disruptions Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, Last month, the PBOC injected 600 billion yuan (about 86.85 billion U.S.dollars) into the market through its medium-term lending facility (MLF) In addition to MLF operations, the bank reported that its open markettrading of treasury bonds yielded a net injection of 50 billion yuan. 2. Chinese enterprises maintained a sound overall credit standing inJanuary, the State Administration for Market Regulation said on Tuesday. Sub-indices tracking corporate reliability, operational capacity andconnectivity held steady during the month. However, slight declines were Data also showed that two-thirds of industries posted month-on-monthgains in their credit indices in January. Sectors such as utilities, 3. Chinese stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark Shanghai The Shenzhen Component Index closed 3.07 percent lower at 14,022.39 points. The combined turnover of these two indices totaled 3.13 trillion yuan(about 452.97 billion U.S. dollars), up from 3.02 trillion yuan on the Stocks in the oil and gas extraction and shale gas sectors led the gains, while military equipment and minor metals shares were among the biggest The ChiNext Index, tracking China's Nasdaq-style board of growthenterprises, lost 2.57 percent on Tuesday, closing at 3,209.48 points. Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this