早上洞察：2026年1月28日

Morning Insight:January 28, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Live hogs:Peak-season expectations have fallen short, and near-termsupply pressure is emerging. Recently, the spot hog market has shown twoabnormal signals: first, with total inventories failing to declinesufficiently, enterprises and social participants—supported by strongcash flow and optimistic expectations ahead of the holiday—have instead contract approaches position limits, spot market weakness persists,industrial hedging willingness and ratios are stronger than in the Tin:Recently, tin prices have edged higher on a daily basis with largeintraday volatility, remaining in a high-level consolidation range.Overseas, LME tin inventories remain elevated, dampening upside momentumin LME prices and to some extent weighing on SHFE tin. On incrementalnews, Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources statedyesterday that the government plans to set a “minimum cost price” for Palm oil:Seasonal factors in producing regions, strong prices of other crude oil prices have driven palm oil higher. High-frequency data showthat Malaysian palm oil has clearly entered a phase of decliningproduction and inventories, while market expectations that Indonesia willnot implement B50 in 2026 have largely been fully priced in; beforeevidence emerges that Malaysia’s output and destocking are weaker thanexpected, the market sees no clear bearish factors for palm oil. At Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1.China's trade promotion system will continue intensifying efforts tostabilize foreign trade in 2026 amid a complex and challenging global Ren said the system will help companies expand their exports through credit insurance, and support them to increase their imports of qualityproducts and services from relevant countries. This will better meet the He noted that competition among major countries is becoming more complexand intense, and that a handful of Western countries clinging to a Cold Trade promotion efforts in 2026 should position synergy and efficiency attheir core, and actively identify, respond to and steer changes. They To help Chinese companies explore new markets, build momentum and improvethe business environment, the CCPIT arranged for 2,144 delegations to layout.(Source: Xinhua) 2.China's tech-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) saw By the conclusion of last year, a total of 275,000 tech-oriented SMEs hadreceived loan support, with the loan access rate reaching 50.2 percent, Outstanding loans in both yuan and foreign currencies to tech SMEs stood an increase of 19.8 percent year on year, and 13.6 percentage points The data also showed that there was strengthened credit support for high-tech companies in 2025, with outstanding loans to high-tech firms in both Inclusive loans to small and micro firms grew rapidly last year, seeing Green loans in both yuan and foreign currencies increased by 7.72trillion yuan in 2025, while outstanding agriculture-related loans grew 3.The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 103 pips to 6.9755 against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situa