早上洞察：2026年2月6日

Morning Insight:February 6,2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Prices fell sharply yesterday, with the 2605 contractclosing at RMB 132,780/tonne, down 10.68%. We believe the decline wasmainly driven by three factors. First, lithium carbonate followed abroader macro pullback, as corrections in precious metals, strategicminerals, and overseas assets led to net capital outflows from thecommodities complex, putting pressure on prices. Second, Chilean exports Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's gold production edged up in 2025 while overall consumptiondeclined, amid a shift from jewelry toward investment products, data from The country produced 381.339 tonnes of gold last year, up 1.09 percentyear on year, while output from imported raw materials rose 8.81 percent The association said that a number of exploration, development and On the consumption side, gold consumption totaled 950.096 tonnes lastyear, down 3.57 percent from a year earlier, as jewelry demand fell Trading activity related to gold surged across domestic markets, withtotal gold turnover rising strongly on both the Shanghai Gold Exchange Higher prices also drove robust inflows into gold exchange-traded funds(ETF), which added 133.118 tonnes during the year, surging 149.91 percent 2. China on Thursday introduced a zero-tariff policy on certain imported 3. China's machinery industry posted steady performance in 2025 as bothsales and profits increased, the China Machinery Industry Federation The added value of major machinery enterprises rose by 8.2 percent year on year in 2025, the CMIF said. The increase outpaced the overallindustrial sector by 2.3 percentage points and the manufacturing sector Among the 122 categories of key machinery products monitored by thefederation, 85 recorded output growth, 13 more than a year earlier. In In 2025, major machinery companies posted total operating revenue of 33.2trillion yuan (about 4.8 trillion U.S. dollars), up 6 percent year on Looking ahead to 2026, Ye Dingda, deputy head of the federation, saidthat the machinery industry faces both opportunities and challenges, but As policies to stabilize growth and advance transformation continue totake effect, the industry is expected to remain on a steady footing, Ye Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai