早上洞察：2026年3月30日

Morning Insight:March 30, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Tin:Rebound from lows; resilient fundamentals support a firm biasRecent price action shows that tin rebounded from around RMB On the news front, supply concerns from Indonesia have created somevolatility. Market rumors suggested potential export tariffs on refined From a fundamentals perspective, elevated spot premiums and ongoinginventory drawdowns highlight underlying resilience. On the supply side, In terms of inventories, destocking has continued this week. Domesticsocial inventories have declined by 1,875 tonnes to 9,102 tonnes, Overall, elevated spot premiums combined with rapid visible inventory drawdowns suggest solid market acceptance of current price levels andstrong fundamental resilience. Given that open interest has already Risks: Further escalation of tensions involving Iran, as well as potentialtightening expectations (e.g., rate hikes), which could exert broad Polyolefins:Firm performance with >2% gains; cost push and supply Polyolefins rose more than 2% in Friday’s night session, maintaining afirm tone. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—potentially evolving into ground conflict—and continued disruptions to On the supply side, PE operating rates fell to 76% (-4% w/w), with newmaintenance at Maoming, Satellite, Qilu, and Wanhua HD units, and are PP operating rates edged down to 70% (-0.5% w/w). While PDH maintenanceincrements in April are expected to remain limited, planned turnarounds With rising costs and tightening supply reinforcing each other, exportarbitrage windows remain open. Supply losses are more pronounced in amid feedstock uncertainty, midstream export order bookings remained Entering April, previously accumulated low-cost feedstock inventories atdownstream players are likely to be gradually depleted. Although pricepass-through to new orders remains sluggish, end-use demand is expected Focus: Magnitude of supply contraction and the pace of price transmission Aluminum:Renewed Middle East supply disruptions; LME leads with >5%surge, SHFE upside in focus Recent headlines point to renewed supply disruptions at Middle Easternsmelters. Bahrain is rumored to implement an additional 320kt productioncut, while over the weekend both Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium From a marginal pricing perspective, if Bahrain and EGA confirm expandedproduction cuts, overseas spot premiums—already rising—could continue to On the macro side, inflation is expected to trend higher in April,reinforcing upward pressure on rate expectations. As a result, macro In the near term, trading is likely to be driven by developments in the Middle East and their tangible impact on supply. However, looking ahead,downside risks from macro-driven pricing—particularly tightening Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's external debt remained generally stable, with outstanding This figure was down 15.5 billion dollars, or 0.7 percent, from the end China's external debt currency structure had improved in 2025, while thematurity structure remained basically stable, said Li Bin, deputy head At the end of 2025, local currency-denominated external debt hadaccounted for 55.5 percent of the total, up 1.4 percentage points from In terms of maturity structure, medium-and long-term external debtaccounted for 43.5 percent of the total at the end of 2025, down 0.6 Data also revealed that at the end of last year, China's ratio ofoutstanding external debt to gross domestic product had stood at 11.9 These indicators remained within internationally recognized safety thresholds, and China's external debt risks are generally controllable, 2. China registered a current account surplus of more than 5.24 trillionyuan (about 757.87 billion U.S. dollars) last year, according to data By the end of last year, China's external financial assets had totalednearly 11.79 trillion U.S. dollars, while external liabilities exceeded 3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)'s new lending and bondinvestment totaled 4.8 trillion yuan (about 694.23 billion U.S. dollars) The bank said it stepped up support for key areas and weak links in thereal economy in 2025, making full efforts to help stabilize employment, By the end of last year, ICBC's outstanding technology loans stood at At the end of 2025, ICBC's outstanding green loans exceeded 6.7 trillionyuan, and the bank had cumulatively issued 125 billion yuan of green Outstanding loans to core industries of the digital economy exceeded 1 ICBC's total assets stood at 53.48 trillion yuan at the end of last year, Its operating revenue rose 1.9 percent year on year to nearly 801.4 As for asset quality, the bank's non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.31percent at the en