2025年全球能源展望

Geopolitical uncertainty, shifting policies, and increasing demand forpower are reshaping the energy landscape. This year’s report presentsour updated view on what’s to come in the energy system. October 2025 Contents Foreword......................................................................................................................................... 1Executive summary...................................................................................................................... 2Our scenarios and methodology............................................................................................................................ 2The forces shaping energy in 2025....................................................................................................................... 3The 2025 energy outlook........................................................................................................................................ 4Looking ahead............................................................................................................................................................. 4Our scenarios and methodology............................................................................................... 5The forces shaping energy in 2025.......................................................................................... 9Growing global energy demand........................................................................................................................... 10Sensitivity analysis: What if a global recession comes in 2027?................................................................12Potential changes to GDP.......................................................................................................................................14Sensitivity analysis: What if India’s 2050 GDP per capitamatches China’s current GDP per capita?........................................................................................................15Supply chain bottlenecks........................................................................................................................................16The 2025 energy outlook......................................................................................................... 17Projected energy demand...................................................................................................................................... 17Expected electrification trends.............................................................................................................................19Projected fuel demand...........................................................................................................................................23The power mix............................................................................................................................................................26How could global coal demand evolve?............................................................................................................28What’s the cost of complete decarbonization of the power sector?........................................................30About this report.........................................................................................................................35Contributors................................................................................................................................ 37Additional contributors..............................................................................................................38 Foreword Ten years of McKinsey’sGlobal Energy Perspective Two overarching themes emerge from this year’soutlook. First, cost competitiveness and aneconomically pragmatic energy transition remainparamount. Energy affordability, reliability (includingenergy security at the national or regional level), andemission reduction continue to form a trio of prioritiesthat drive energy decision-making. The world isfalling short of meeting the Paris Agreement’s targetsfor emission reduction. Without affordability—andbankability—widespread adoption of new low-carbontechnologies will not happen. This year marks the tenth anniversaryof McKinsey’sGlobal Energy Perspective, providingopportunities to reflect on the lessons learned overthe past decade and to look ahead to the challengesand opportunities of the next one. Throughout the years, we have continually refined ourglobal energy model, incorporating dozens of inputsacross sectors and regions. Our goal has been toprovide a robust, data-driven fact base for all energystakeholders as the sector evolves. Two key forceshave consistently shaped our energy outlook: policyand technology. Second, there is no silver bullet for decarbonization.Countries and regions will follow distinct trajectoriesbased on their local economic conditions, resourceendowment, and the real