2025年英国石油公司能源展望

is andBelow This year’sEnergy Outlookfocused on two main scenarios: Current Trajectory2°. The scenarios are notpredictions of what is likely tohappen or what bp would liketo happen. Rather they explorethe possible implications ofdifferent judgements andassumptions concerning thenature of the energy transition.The scenarios are based onexisting technologies anddo not consider the possibleimpact of new or unknowntechnologies or applications. Energy Outlook OutlookOutlook, and how futurecould be improved. bp Energy O u t look: 2025 editionthe energy system: increasedgeopolitical fragmentation,sustained weakness in energyefficiency, and a growing riskof a delayed and disorderlytransition.One of the benefits ofpublishing theis that it contributes to thecontinuing debate and dialogueabout the many issues affectingthe energy system. I hopethis year’sdomestic low carbon energy. Wemay start to see the emergence Below 2°alsofor everyone else grapplingwith these issues. Even more, Ihope that you will let us knowyour views, how they differto the analysis discussed intheOutlooksSpencer DaleChief economist 2025will not be andOutlook 2emissions remain Energy Outlook carbon budget would becomeincreasing challenging andWhat should we make of allEnergy OutlookReaders of previous bpEnergy Outlookssurprised that this year’sedition does not attempt toprovide any definitive answersor recommendations. But itdoes present two scenarios –Current Trajectory– which can be used to exploresome of the key uncertaintiessurrounding the future of theenergy system stemming fromdifferences in the speed anddepth of the energy transition.And this year’sdevelops three sensitivities,designed to illustrate thepossible implications of some ofthe other recent issues shaping I realize that shifting patterns inenergy efficiency may seem alittle arcane, but I would arguethat the sustained weaknessin efficiency gains over thepast five years was one of themost important factors shapingglobal energy over this period.In particular, it underpinnedthe continued steady growthin fossil fuels despite the rapidgrowth in low carbon energy, ledby solar and wind.Carbon emissionsThis year marks the 10thanniversary of the historicCOP21 and the agreementof the Paris climate goals.Since then, carbon emissionsfrom energy use and industryhave risen every year (otherthan the Covid-induced dip in Energy OutlookEnergy Outlook 2025 Energy efficiencyThe strength in energy demandis the counterpart to anotheryear of lacklustre gains inenergy efficiency, the causesof which are still poorlyunderstood. Introduction toIntroduction Welcome to the 2025 editionof bp’s Others may increase theemphasis on domesticallyproduced fossil fuels, and resistincreasing their dependencyon low-cost internationalsupply chains for low carbontechnologies.Data centresThe seemingly exponentialgrowth in data centres tosupport the increasing useof artificial intelligence (AI)applications provides an important new source of energydemand, especially in somemarkets such as the US wheregrowth in power demand overthe past decade had virtuallystalled.These changing political andtechnological factors comeagainst a backdrop of anotheryear of surprising strength in bp Energy O u t look: 2025 editionThe rapid growth in bothelectricity demand and lowcarbon generation is puttingincreased pressure on networkplanning and power systemoperation. For example, inthe US, the typical time frominterconnection request tocommercial operation hasincreased from under two yearsin the 2000s to nearly five years.The development of less mature,higher cost low carbon energyGrowth in oil demand since 2019has averaged 0.6Mb/d per year.All this growth has been dueto increasing consumption in vectors and technologies –including low carbon hydrogen,sustainable aviation fuel, andcarbon capture use and storage– remain at a very early stageand heavily dependent on policyand regulatory support.Despite growing concernsabout the availability of criticalminerals and the security ofsupply chains, investmentgrowth slowed in 2024, andexploration activity was flat. Thepressure on available suppliesof copper look set to increasematerially over the next 5-10years. diversity in the energy pathwaysfollowed by different countries.Some energy importers maychoose to increase the paceof electrification, poweredby (domestic) low carbonenergy, and so reduce theirreliance on imported fossilfuels. In contrast, some energyproducers may prefer tocontinue to use their domesticfossil fuels rather than increasetheir dependency on low carbontechnologies, dominated byinternational supply chains.Oil and natural gas on countries depending onthe structure of their energysystems, leading to greater lower investment levels in otheremerging economies, wherefinancing costs pose a heavyMuch of this investment hasbeen deployed in electrificationand in low carbon powergeneration, led by wind andsolar power. Wind and solarpower generation has doubledbetwee