2025年铑集团气候展望：全球排放与能源基准概率预测

Authors:Mahmoud MobirShweta MovaliaHannah PittAlfredo RiveraEmma RutkowskiKate Larsen Rhodium Climate Outlook2025: Probabilistic GlobalEmissions and Energy BaselineProjections Energy & Climate What Is the World on Track for? Today, a decade into implementation of the Paris Agreement, there has already beenmeaningfuldecarbonization progress.Renewable electricity and electric vehicletechnologies are being deployed at scale around the world, and newer technologies toaddresssome of the hard-to-abate sectors of the economy are ready forcommercialization.The global policy environment for clean energy has generallyimproved, and capital markets have matured to help scale clean technology investment.Progress to date has flattened global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but has yet todeliver an absolute decline in emissions. Understanding what the world and nations are on track for today is a critical starting pointfor charting a path to where we need to go from here to avoid the worst impacts of climatechange. To date, the global community has largely relied on models to project global GHGemissions pathways in order to assess the necessary ambition of global and nationalemissions pledges and illustrate how the economy would need to adjust to achieve thosetargets. Now, a much wider array of actors are trying to understand how the economy willtransform as the global energy transition continues to unfold and how they can acceleratethat progress even further. Many motivated investors, companies,and policymakers are finding it increasinglychallenging, however, to find the signal of where new action andinvestment can mosteffectively accelerate the global energy transition.Existing global and regional outlooksfor baseline GHG emissions and energy outcomes describe potential future scenarios inwhich global decarbonization action will either: 1) accelerate to meet global goals; or 2)fail to evolve from today’s dynamics, locking in the current fossil economy for theforeseeable future. These illustrative scenarios require the user to choose their ownadventure—based solely on a belief of whether the world will change dramatically ornot—when selecting a starting point to assess where additional investment or policyaction is needed. These outlooks are limited by the following features: Single, deterministic scenarios: Most outlooks report outcomes under a singlescenario (or set of scenarios) that are based on deterministic input assumptions forkey variables that are, in reality, highly uncertain. The pace of economic growth, forexample, is one of the most important drivers of emissions growth, yet most outlooksrely on a single deterministic GDP projection. Other important uncertainties that driveemissions include population growth, fuel prices, clean technology costs, and thepace of learning for emerging decarbonization technologies. Policy scenarios untethered to reality: Because of the inherent uncertainty in howpolicywill evolve over time,modelers are left to construct stylized emissionprojections that follow one of two possible policy stories: 1) countries keep policies inplace today, but there is no further evolution of policy beyond that; or 2) countriesfully implement the pledges they have announced, whether their near-term NDCsunderthe Paris Agreement,mid-century net-zero emissions targets,or globalemissions scenarios consistent with keeping temperature rise below 1.5°C. The realityis likely somewhere in between those two extreme policy stories. The range of 2035NDCs submitted to date by countries under the Paris Agreement illustrates this pointwell, especially when you consider the world’s two largest emitters: China and the US.The US under the Biden administration submitted a very ambitious NDC in January 2025 that the current Trump administration has disavowed, and is therefore a grossoverestimate of US emission reductions over the coming decade. On the other hand,China took a conservative approach, setting 2035 targets that many experts assessas less ambitious than the likely pace of clean energy deployment and pace ofemission reductions. As a result, scenarios that show global emission reductionsconsistent with 2035 NDCs will not provide useful information about what path theworld is likely to take in the coming decade. Partial emissions picture: The majority of outlooks have focused to date on the energytransition, reporting emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from energy combustion. Butenergy CO2contributes only two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions. The restis emitted as methane (CH4) from oil and gas production, agriculture and waste; nitrousoxides (N2O) from agricultural production; hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and otherfluorinated gases used in refrigeration, cooling, and industrial uses; and CO2fromindustrialprocesses,forests,and other land uses.Without an integratedunderstanding of the potential trajectory of emissions of the other third of GHGs, weare left with only a partial picture of what we