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固定收益部市场日报

2025-09-30 招银国际 Fanfan(关放)
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CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, the new DAESEC 4.375 10/14/28 was largelyunchanged fromRO at 99.6. We saw AMs buying FRNs to park cash ahead of the GoldenWeek. CKINF 4.85 Perp was down 0.7pt. QDJZWD 6.95 03/31/28 andNUFAU 5 01/27/30 were 0.4-0.5pt higher. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk VEDLN:IPT of 9.5% for the new VEDLN 32s is fair. VEDLN 28-33s werelargely unchanged this morning. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk RAKUTN:Rakuten plans to issue USD PerpNC5 in mid-Oct’25 to refinanceRAKUTN 5.125 Perp first callable in Apr’26. RAKUTNs were unchanged thismorning. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,we saw balanced two-way flows on recent new issues PINGIN35/CKHH 30/MITSET 30. MEITUA widened 1bp amid two-way flows. We sawbetter buying on Chinese/Japanese/Middle Eastern financial FRNs becauseof cash-parking demand. The rest of Asia IG space was unchanged to atough tighter.We saw some PB selling HYSAN Perps amid the latestNWDEVL headlines. HYSAN 4.85 and 7.2 Perps were unchanged to 0.1ptlower. NWDEVL complex was 0.6pt lower to 0.3pt higher. See our commentsyesterday. There was demand on MTRC Perps from AMs on back of firmerrates. MTRC 5 5/8 and 4 7/8 Perps were 0.1-0.2pt higher.LASUDE 507/28/26 was up by 0.9pt. Lai Sun Development is close to signing HKD3.5bnsecured five-year loan refinancing facility due Oct’25. EHICAR 26-27s wereunchanged to 0.4pt higher. The two bonds have moved up 2.6-3.5pts sincelast week. Yesterday, EHICAR released moderately better 1H25 results withyoy improvement in profit margin, lower net debts and consistent rebound inutilization rate.In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29s declined by 1.1pts.See our commentlast Friday. GRNLGR 29s were 0.9-1ptlower. FUTLAN 28was down by 0.2pt.We saw better selling on Japanese insurance hybridsand Yankee AT1s in the morning from institutions, versus moderately betterbuying from PBs during the London session.In Southeast Asia, there weresome month-end rebalancing flows on Indian CBKIN/EXIMBK/HDFCB/SBIINcurve. VEDLN 28-33s were unchanged 0.3pt lower. See comments below onthe FV of the new VEDLN 32s. SMCGL Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower.PCORPM 5.95 and 7.35 Perps were up by 0.1pt. There was little traction inthe LGFV space.. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.26%), Dow (+0.15%) and Nasdaq(+0.48%) were higher on Monday. UST yield was lower onMonday. 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.63%/3.74%/4.15%/4.71%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 VEDLN: IPT of 9.5% forthe new VEDLN 32s is fair Vedanta Resources (VRL) proposes to issue 7NC2 144A/Reg S USD bonds (B2/-/B+) to further extend thedebt maturity profile andlower funding costs. Proceeds will mainly be used to prepay the USD550mn due-Apr’26 private credit facility (PCF) in Oct’25, with any excess applied to debt repayment and general corporatepurposes. The funding cost of the PCF is 18%. We view the IPT of 9.5% for the new VEDLN 32s to be fair, inview of VEDLN 31-33s are trading at YTM of 9.3-9.6% and factoring into the differences in guarantee structureand covenants. We noted that the new VEDLN 32s will be issued by Vedanta Resources Finance II Plc and guaranteed byVRL, Twin Star, Welter Trading, and a newly added Vedanta Holdings Mauritius II which holds 12.6% ofVedanta Limited (VEDL).The addition of a subsidiary guarantor raises the subsidiary-guarantor group’saggregate stake in VEDL to 53.6% from40.99%. However, the incurrence debt cap for subsidiary guarantorsincreases to USD5.2bn (excluding inter-company loans) from USD4.0bn. The new VEDLN 32s will rank paripassu with all its existing USD bonds. The new USD bonds issuance will notably lowerVEDLN’s funding cost in view of the funding cost of PCF at18%.Assuming new issue of USD500mn, draw down of USD250mn syndicate facility and prepayment ofUSD550mn PCF, VEDLN’s near-term refinancing pressure will be largely relieved with no major maturity in theremaining of FY26, cUSD300mn in FY27 and cUSD450mn in FY28. We view that the increase in gross debtsat its standalone level to USD4.8bn on a pro-forma basis from USD4.6bn in Sep’25 to be manageable,especially factoring into LTM dividend incomeof USD1.3bn and brand fees of USD386mn in FY25. . We maintain buy on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 on better risk-adjusted profile and higher trading liquidity within theVEDLN curve.On the other hand, VEDL expects to completethe demerge by end-Mar’26, given the courthearing is deferred to 8 Oct’25 amid the government’s objection.Please read our comments on VEDL’spotential acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates in our daily on24 Sep’25. Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) News and market color Regardingonshore primary issuances, there were 31 credit bonds issued yesterday with an amount ofRMB27bn. Asfor month-to-date, 2,238 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,998bnraised, representing