联合王国：选定问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperontheUnited Kingdomwas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onJuly 1, 2025. Copies of thisreport are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. UNITED KINGDOM SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByEuropean DepartmentPrepared ByLeonardoIndraccolo, Andrew Hodge (EUR),and Samuel Pienknagura (RES) BRIDGING THE GAP: UNDERSTANDING THE UK-US PRODUCTIVITY DECOUPLING _________________________________________________________________________3 A. Introduction: The Decoupling From the US __________________________________________3B. UK’s Productivity Puzzle: A Review of Existing Explanations __________________________5C. Breaking Down Aggregate Productivity: Sectoral Patterns ___________________________7D. Has Resource Misallocation Played a Big Role? ____________________________________10E. Understanding the Within-Firm Productivity Growth Divergence __________________12F. Possible Determinants of Firm-Level R&D Investment _____________________________16G. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ________________________________________17 BOX 1. Description of the Datasets __________________________________________________________5 FIGURES 1. United Kingdom-United States Aggregate Labor Productivity Decoupling___________42. Sectoral Structure United Kingdom-United States ___________________________________83.Sectoral Productivity Patterns ________________________________________________________94. Share of Businesses With Broadband Download Internet Speedat Least 100 Mbit _____________________________________________________________________105.Olley-Pakes Decomposition of Aggregate Productivity ____________________________116.Distribution of Employment by Productivity Deciles _______________________________127. Firm-Level TFP Growth United Kingdom-United States ____________________________138. Distribution of TFP Growth of Frontier and Laggard Firms _________________________149. Labor Productivity of Frontier and Laggard Firms __________________________________1410. Investment in Intangible Capital __________________________________________________1511. R&D Spending by Publicly Listed Firms ___________________________________________1512. Net Equity Issuance of United Kingdom and United States Listed Firms __________16 UNITED KINGDOM 13. Venture Capital Investment in ICT Sector, 2023 ___________________________________________16 ANNEX I. Productivity Trends in Compustat Data and National Accounts _____________________________19 APPENDIX I. Mathematical Appendix_____________________________________________________________________21 References____________________________________________________________________________________23 INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN THE UK ____________________________________________________________26 A. Introduction: A Resurgence of IP in Advanced Economies _________________________________26B. The Recent History of IP in the UK _________________________________________________________28C. Designing IP: A Conceptual Framework ____________________________________________________30D. Successful IP: Lessons from International Experience ______________________________________33E. Targeting of UK IP: An Evidence-Based Approach __________________________________________36F. Modeling the Impact of UK IP on Productivity______________________________________________38G. Conclusions: Making the New UK IP Strategy Successful___________________________________41 TABLES 1.The Benefits and Risks of IP ________________________________________________________________322.The Productivity Impact of United Kingdom IP _____________________________________________ 40 FIGURES 1. Industrial Policy: Recent International Trends ______________________________________________272. Industrial Policy in the EU __________________________________________________________________283. Public Support for R&D in the United Kingdom ____________________________________________294. Market Failures in the United Kingdom ____________________________________________________385. Spillovers and Spillbacks of United Kingdom IP ____________________________________________41 ANNEXES I. The United Kingdom’s National Wealth Fund _______________________________________________44II. Identifying Market Failures Through Distortion Centrality __________________________________46III. A Structural Model of United Kingdom IP _________________________________________________47 References____________________________________________________________________________________50 BRIDGING THE GAP: UNDERSTANDING THE UK-USPRODUCTIVITY DECOUPLING1 The UK