Comex铜库存持续上升；政策支持下的钢铁价格复苏

e12848057 07 July 2025EquityChinaBasic MaterialsMatty Zhao >Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+85235084001matty.zhao@bofa.comEdward Leung, CFA >>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+85235083282edward.leung@bofa.comMiriam Chan, CFA >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7478miriam.chan@bofa.comYibing XiaResearch AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+85235088045yibing.xia@bofa.com Key chartsExhibit 1: Copper and aluminum spot pricesLME copper price was -0.8% WoW to US$10,042/t and LME aluminum pricewas +0.2% WoW to USs2,599/t as of Jul 4thUSD/tLME spot Copper price12,000LME spot Aluminium price10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000201120132015201720192021Source: Bloomberg, BofA Global ResearchExhibit 3: Domestic monthly treatment charges on Cu concentrateDomestic monthly treatment charges on copper concentrate: -USs43.3/t asof Jul 4thUS$/tDomestic monthly Cu treatment charges150100500-50-100Source: Wind, BofA Global ResearchExhibit 5: Gold spot priceCOMEX gold (spot) price was +2% WoW to USS3,337/oz as of Jul 4th3,800US$/oz3,2002,6002,0001,40080020020002004Source: Bloomberg, BofA Global Research2Basic Materials - China I 07 July 2025 2022Gold Spot200820122016 20232025BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH2025BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH3,33720202024BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH As of June 2gth, Shanghai bonded warehouse inventory/Shanghai socialinventory was +4% /-11% WoW; Guangdong bonded warehouseinventory/Guangdong social inventory was +26%/-9%WoW400,000Shanghai Bonded Warehouse InventorySocial Inventory Shanghai300,000Guangdong Bonded Wlehouse InventorySocial Inventory Guangdon200,000100,0000Jan-23Jun-23Nov-23Apr-24Sep-24Feb-25Source:Blocnberg, BofA Global ResearchBofA GLOBAL RESEARCHExhibit 4: Avg. national aluminum margin (60% captive plant)Avg. national aluminum margin -RMB29/t WoW to RMB4,134/tRMB/tAvg. national aluminum margin (60% captive8,000plant, 40% on-grid)6,0004,1344,0002,000-2,000-4,0002019202020212022202320242025berg, SMM, Wind, BofA Global ResearchBofA GLOBAL RESEARCHExhibit 6: Spot cash margins at steel millsSpot rebar cash margin -RMB21/t to RMB125/t, and spot HRC cash margin+RMB16/t to -RMB19/tRmb/tRebar - spot millsHRC - spot mills2,0001,5001,0005000-50010-1,000151617181920212223Source: Bloomberg, SMM, Wind, BofA Global ResearchBofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit 8: ASP at Qinhuangdao port (Kcal5,500)ASP of QHD 5,500kcal spot price was up by 0.2% WoW at RMB620/t as of 27JunRMR/tQHD price (5,500 Kcal/kg)2,4002,1001,8001,5001,20090060030020122014201620182020Source: Sxcoal, BofA Global ResearchExhibit 5: Lithium carbonate unit refining marginCurrent lithium carbonate refining margin based on spodumene was loss-makingRMB/tBattery-grade (99.5%) lithium carbonate ASP USD/tSpodumene Concentrate ASP (6%, CIF China)- RHS600,000400,000200,000020202021202220232024Source: SMM, BofA Global Research, SCI99Exhibit 11: Polysilicon price and GPM%As of Jul 3rd, N-type polysilicon price and granular silicon price wereunchanged WoW at RMB36/kg(w/VAT) and RMB33/kg(w/VAT), respectively120N-type polysilicon price (w/VAT)N-type granular silicon price (w/VAT)90Polysilicon GP (w/o VAT)Polysilicon GPM -RHS60300-30Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24un-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-29un-25Source: Solarzoom, Wind, BofA Global ResearchBasic Materials -ChinaI07 July 2025 Exhibit 7: Containerboard margin trackerThe Nine Dragons margin tracker is now indicating NP/t of -RMB30/t for thisweek.Rmb/t160012008004000-400222334455Source: Wind, BofA Global ResearchExhibit 9: China national cement shipment ratioNationwide cement shipment ratio came at 40.5%,-1.2% WoW%20182019100202220239080706050403020100Source: Digital cement, BofA Global ResearchExhibit 10: National Float Glass Price and Xinyi float glass GPMAs of Jul 3rd, the national average float glass price was up 0.1% WoW toRMB1,201/t. Our analysis shows Xinyi float glass GPM was up 0.6ppts to11.0%GPM (LHS)ASP (RHS)70%60%50%40%30%-20%10%0%-10%-20%2019Source: SCI99, Wind, BofA Global Research, SCI99 62020222024BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH60004000200002025BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH60%40%20%0%20%-40%BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH3 -30BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH2020202120242025BofA GLOBAL RESEARCHRMB/t3,3003,0002,7002,4002,1001,8001,5001,20020232024BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Metals: Comex copper inventory continueupOn Jul 2nd, US President Trump stated that the US will charge 20% tariffs on importsfrom Vietnam under a new trade deal and a steeper tariff of 40% will be imposed ontransshipping. Trump also hinted that a steeper tariff will be imposed on countries thatcannot reach trade deal with US before Jul gth. LME copper price was -1% WoW toUSs10,042/t and China price was +0.3% WoW to RMB80,580/t (Changjiang index)Comex copper inventory was up +6% wow to 221kt and LME inventory was +3% wow to94kt. LME aluminum price was +0.2% WoW to USs2,599/t and China price was down by1% to RMB20,760/t. Domestic alumina price was -0.1% WoW to RMB3,116/t, andaluminum margin -RMB29/t WoW to RMB4,134/t. COMEX gold (spot) price was +2%WoW to USs3,337/oz. Domestic battery-grade