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固定收益部市场日报

2025-07-03 Glenn Ko,Cyrena Ng,Jerry Wang 招银国际 林菁|Jade
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CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025 Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk We hope you found our commentaries and ideashelpful. We seek toelevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highlyappreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “TheAsset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025”.Thank you for yoursupport! Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk This morning, the new NHSECS 4.625 28/NHSECS 4.75 30 tightened 5bpsfrom ROs. The new KORGAS Float 28 tightened 2bps, KORGAS 4.25 30was unchanged from ROs. SHIKON/NSINTW 34-35s tightened 1-2bps.NIPLIF/MYLIFE 55s were up another 0.1pt. FAEACO Perp lowered another2.2pts. JerryWang王世超(852)3761 8919jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk CNMDHLs:initiationthecoverageCNMDHLswithneutralrecommendations. This morning, CNMDHL 4 ⅞ 07/10/30 widened 8bps toT+123 withYTM of 5.1%. The old CNMDHL 2.125 07/14/26 widened 1bp.See below. Macao gaming:GGR growth accelerated in Jun’25, attributable to concertsofCanto and Korean pop stars.MGMCHI 27-31s,SANLTD 26-31s,SJMHOL 26-31s, STCITY/STDCTY 27-29s and WYNMAC 26-29s wereunchanged to 0.2pts higher, and MPEL 26-29s were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pthigher this morning. See below. Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 PLEASE READ THE AUTHORCERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEYesterday,on primary, CNMDHL priced 5yr bond at T+115 yielding 5.018%(IPT at T+165). The old CNMDHL 26 was 9bps tighter (0.1pt higher). Seecomments below. QATIQD priced NC6 Perp AT1 at 6.15% (IPT at 6.75%).SOFTBK priced 3.75yr, 5.5yr, 7yr, 10yr bonds at 6.5%, 6.875%, 7.25%, 7.5%(IPT at 6.75%, 7.125%, 7.5%, 7.875%) respectively. NHSECS priced 3yr, 5yrbonds at T+90, T+100 (IPT at T+130, T+140), respectively. KORGAS priced3yr floating rated bond, 5yr fixed rated bond at SOFR+65, T+47 (IPT atSOFR+105, T+85), respectively. In Chinese IGs, BABA 35s/TENCNT 30stightened 1bp. ZHOSHK 28s tightened 10bps on AM chasing. In financials,FRESHK 26-28s tightened 2-5bps. Last night, FRESHK announced fullconversion, and withdrawal of listing of all o/s convertible bond FRESHK 2.507/08/25.BBLTB 36s tightened 1bp,BBLTB 34s/40s widened 1bp.STANLN/HSBC Float 29-31s tightened 1-2bps. SUMIBK/MIZUHO Float 29-31s wereunchanged to 2bps wider. In insurance papers, SHIKON/NSINTW34-35s tightened 1-3bps. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 53-55s were up 0.2-0.5pt, as themoderate profit taking flows from RMs/PBs were well absorbed. In AT1s,LLOYDS 6.413/NWG 8.125 Perps were 0.3-0.8pt higher. In HK, NWDEVLPerps/27-31s were 0.1-0.6pt lower. See our comments on NWD’s loanrefinancing on2 Jul ’25. FAEACO Perp lowered 1.3pts, closed 3.4pts lowerWTD. Last night, Far East Consortium (FEC) announced the completion ofdisposal of 53.21% shares in BC Investment. NDPAPE Perp lowered 1.1pts. MTRC Perps were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. On the other hand, PCPDC 26 rose 1.2pts.HYSAN Perps were0.1-0.8pt higher.CKINF/CKPH Perps were up 0.2-0.4pt.In Chinese properties,ROADKG 28-30s wereunchanged to 0.5pt higher, closed 0.1-0.7pt lower WTD. In SE Asia, VEDLN 28-33s were 0.2-1.0pt higher.VLLPM 27-29s declined 0.2-1.0pt, closed0.1-0.2pt higher WTD. GLPSP 4.5 Perp lowered 0.5pt. Meanwhile,DELMPI 9 Perp was unchanged. Del Monte Pacific received SGX approval for extension to release its FY25results, and Del Monte Foods has filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding in the US. In LGFVs, there was robust RM demand in higher-yielding names with tactical investors switching out short dated25s/26s papers. There were two way interests on CNH names such as QDOCID 6.8 27s/CDTFDG 7.327s/SHAHEI 7.8 27s. In SOE perps, SPICPE/SPICPD Perps were unchanged to 0.1pt higher. LastTradingDay’s Top Movers MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.47%), Dow (-0.02%) and Nasdaq (+0.94%) were mixed on Wednesday. The US has liftedsome export license requirements for chip design software salesin China, as Beijing and Washington implementa trade deal for critical technologies. The U.S. crude oil inventories was +3.845mn, much higher than the marketexpectation of-3.5mn. The U.S. ADP nonfarm employment in Jun’25 was-33k, lower than the marketexpectationof +99k. UST yield was higher on Wednesday, 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.78%/3.87%/4.30%/4.82%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 CNMDHL:Valuation of New CNMDHL 30not too appealing This morning, CNMDHL 4 ⅞ 07/10/30 widened 8bps to T+123 with YTM of 5.1%.Priced at T+115bps vs IPTof T+165bps,we still consider the valuation of CNMDHL 4 ⅞ 07/10/30(BBB rated by S&P) not tooappealing.Indeed, we believe T+130bps is the FV of the new issue.That said, we expect decent technicaldemand for Chinese IG yielding 5%+, especially in domestic consumption sector.Hence, we initiation thecoverage CNMDHLswith neutral recommendations.For Chinese IGs, we prefer AACTECs, WBs andZHOSHKs. China Modern Dairy (CMD) is the second largest dairy farm operator by herd size and raw milk output, afterChina Youran Dairy Group.CMD has been e