燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告
Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTS供应02炼厂开工全球炼厂检修国内炼厂产量与商品量 进出口国内燃料油进出口数据全球高硫燃料油进出口数据全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 价格及价差亚太区域现货FOB价格欧洲区域现货FOB价格美国地区燃料油现货价格纸货与衍生品价格燃料油现货价差全球燃料油裂解价差全球燃料油纸货月差 需求国内外燃料油需求数据 库存全球燃料油现货库存 2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述◆周度回顾：本周全球燃料油价格随着地缘冲突有所缓解而大幅下跌，价格水平逐渐回到冲突之前的水平。燃料油的裂解、月差从高位小幅回落，同时低硫相对高硫有一定强势。◆周度展望：本周燃料油价格大幅回落，正如我们此前所说，当地缘冲突缓解后，中东地区的油品运输一旦恢复正常，包含在价格中的风险溢价将被全部回吐，这是驱动整个价格大幅下跌的核心驱动。从基本面来看，中东的出口数量短期维持稳定，而随着地缘风险的解除以及Rabigh炼厂将在下周复产，整个中东的高硫出口预计将继续上升，这将继续对高硫价格产生利空作用。同时，低硫虽然在船燃需求端持续被高硫挤压，但巴西、西北欧对亚洲的出口都在下降，再加上近期日本炼厂的检修，亚太市场接收的现货数量在接下来一段时间内都会相对有限，新加坡低硫的月差和裂解将因此受到支撑。国内市场方面，国内炼厂低硫产量恢复在即，但短期可能出于保证成品油产量的因素，预计近两月的低硫生产数量不会大幅增加，对盘面产生的影响将相对有限。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures炼厂开工02-1903-0303-1303-2304-0204-1204-2205-0205-1405-2406-0306-1306-2307-0307-1607-28原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周）202120222023201820192020 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球炼厂检修0200040006000800010000120001400001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球CDU装置检修量2018201920202022202320240200400600800100012001400160001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球加氢裂化装置检修量201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内炼厂燃料油产量与商品量01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：产量：中国（月）2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：商品量：中国（月）20212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内外燃料油需求数据01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：船供：销量：新加坡（月）20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 库存04 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油现货库存0500010000150002000025000300003500001-0101-1301-2602-0802-2103-0503-1603-2704-0704-1804-2905-1105-2306-0306-1406-2507-0707-2008-0208-1508-2809-0909-2210-0510-1810-31新加坡重质油库存（千桶）20182019202020212022202320242025020040060080010001200140016001800200001-0201-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2904-0904-2105-0405-1605-3106-1106-2207-0407-1607-3008-1208-2509-0709-2010-0310-1710-29欧洲ARA燃料油库存20182019202020212022202320242025 价格及价差05 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures亚太区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-31新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-18富查伊拉3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures欧洲区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30西北欧3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30地中海3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures美国地区燃料油现货价格02040608010012001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾3.5%燃料油FOB价格2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012014016018001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾0.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures纸货与衍生品价格050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU主力2021202220232024050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU连二2021202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures燃料油现货价差010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-01新加坡高低硫价差201920202021202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油裂解价差-50-40-30-20-100102001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10新加坡高硫裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025-60-50-40-30-20-1001001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10西北欧3.5%裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025 进出口06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内燃料油进出口数据05000001000000150000020000002500000300000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油，不含生物柴油：出口数量合计：中国（月）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球高硫燃料油进出口数据05001000150020002500300035004000全球高硫进口数量周度变化中国中东