能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTS供应02炼厂开工全球炼厂检修国内炼厂产量与商品量 进出口国内燃料油进出口数据全球高硫燃料油进出口数据全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 价格及价差亚太区域现货FOB价格欧洲区域现货FOB价格美国地区燃料油现货价格纸货与衍生品价格燃料油现货价差全球燃料油裂解价差全球燃料油纸货月差 需求国内外燃料油需求数据 库存全球燃料油现货库存 2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述◆周度回顾：本周全球燃料油价格波动幅度有所收窄，周初下跌之后小幅回弹，裂解、月差从高位小幅回落。◆周度展望：本周燃料油价格周初下跌之后转而回弹，总体价格涨跌幅与前一周相比有所收窄。但同时，原油价格走势有所转强，导致燃料油裂解从高位滑落。从燃料油自身的基本面来看，此前旺季需求已经基本完成计价，bunker与fob的价差以及象征发电需求的粘度价差都开始逐步收窄，因此目前供应端的变化开始主导价格的走势。从船期数据来看，下周中东发运数量明显恢复，但6月开始俄罗斯部分炼厂处于检修可能将抵消中东供应恢复的利空，同时高硫需求前景仍然较好，我们预计后续高硫的月差和裂解尽管缺乏再次冲上高点的动力，但大概率不会出现大幅回撤。低硫方面，巴西、印尼的发运数量没有明显变化，欧洲市场可能将从本月开始因为船燃需求变化而导致出口数量下降，因此亚太市场的低硫价格也将获得支撑。但对于内盘LU来说，后续国营炼厂复产会增加沿海港口的现货增加，而内外价差的扩大同样也会吸引新加坡市场的现货前往舟山地区参与交割，因此LU的价格、裂解和月差可能都会受到压制。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures炼厂开工02-1903-0303-1303-2304-0204-1204-2205-0205-1405-2406-0306-1406-2507-0707-2007-31原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周）202120222023201820192020 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球炼厂检修0200040006000800010000120001400001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球CDU装置检修量2018201920202022202320240200400600800100012001400160001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球加氢裂化装置检修量201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内炼厂燃料油产量与商品量01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：产量：中国（月）2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：商品量：中国（月）20212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内外燃料油需求数据01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：船供：销量：新加坡（月）20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 库存04 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油现货库存0500010000150002000025000300003500001-0101-1301-2602-0802-2103-0503-1603-2704-0704-1804-2905-1105-2306-0306-1506-2807-1107-2408-0508-1808-3109-1309-2610-0910-2111-04新加坡重质油库存（千桶）20182019202020212022202320242025020040060080010001200140016001800200001-0201-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2904-0904-2105-0405-1605-3106-1106-2407-0707-2008-0308-1608-2909-1009-2310-0610-2011-02欧洲ARA燃料油库存20182019202020212022202320242025 价格及价差05 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures亚太区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-31新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-18富查伊拉3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures欧洲区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30西北欧3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30地中海3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures美国地区燃料油现货价格02040608010012001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾3.5%燃料油FOB价格2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012014016018001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾0.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures纸货与衍生品价格050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU主力2021202220232024050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU连二2021202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures燃料油现货价差010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-01新加坡高低硫价差201920202021202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油裂解价差-50-40-30-20-100102001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10新加坡高硫裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025-60-50-40-30-20-1001001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10西北欧3.5%裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025 进出口06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内燃料油进出口数据05000001000000150000020000002500000300000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油，不含生物柴油：出口数量合计：中国（月）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球高硫燃料油进出口数据05