燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTS供应02炼厂开工全球炼厂检修国内炼厂产量与商品量 进出口国内燃料油进出口数据全球高硫燃料油进出口数据全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 价格及价差亚太区域现货FOB价格欧洲区域现货FOB价格美国地区燃料油现货价格纸货与衍生品价格燃料油现货价差全球燃料油裂解价差全球燃料油纸货月差 需求国内外燃料油需求数据 库存全球燃料油现货库存 2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述◆周度回顾：本周全球燃料油价格波动幅度明显放大，周内随着地缘冲突价格逐步上行，裂解、月差从高位小幅回落。◆周度展望：本周燃料油价格从周初开始持续上涨，由于伊朗、以色列之间的地缘冲突持续扩大，原油价格以及相关油品价格全线上涨。本处冲突影响的核心问题实际上在于霍尔木兹海峡的通航能力，一旦海峡由于冲突发生航线中断，整个中东的燃料油出口都会受到显著影响。沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特等国的燃料油对外出口将受到大幅限制，再加上已经明显下降的伊朗，整个中东85%的燃料油出口将因此受到威胁。鉴于上述几国主要以出口高硫燃料油为主，新加坡380的价格将在接下来一段时间内保持强势。低硫方面，科威特作为亚太近几年新增的低硫供应国，本次地缘冲突也可能导致其低硫组分出口受到影响，同时近期巴西到达新加坡地区的低硫现货数量环比下降，低硫市场现货供应将继续偏紧，从而对价格产生利多影响。综上，近期可关注燃料油裂解以及近月月差的做多空间，尤其是受影响程度更深的高硫燃料油。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures炼厂开工02-1903-0303-1303-2304-0204-1204-2205-0205-1405-2406-0306-1406-2507-0707-2007-31原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周）202120222023201820192020 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球炼厂检修0200040006000800010000120001400001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球CDU装置检修量2018201920202022202320240200400600800100012001400160001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球加氢裂化装置检修量201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内炼厂燃料油产量与商品量01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：产量：中国（月）2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：商品量：中国（月）20212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内外燃料油需求数据01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：船供：销量：新加坡（月）20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 库存04 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油现货库存0500010000150002000025000300003500001-0101-1301-2602-0802-2103-0503-1603-2704-0704-1804-2905-1105-2306-0306-1406-2707-1007-2208-0408-1708-3009-1209-2510-0710-2011-02新加坡重质油库存（千桶）20182019202020212022202320242025020040060080010001200140016001800200001-0201-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2904-0904-2105-0405-1605-3106-1106-2307-0607-1908-0208-1508-2709-0909-2210-0510-1911-01欧洲ARA燃料油库存20182019202020212022202320242025 价格及价差05 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures亚太区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-31新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-18富查伊拉3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures欧洲区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30西北欧3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30地中海3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures美国地区燃料油现货价格02040608010012001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾3.5%燃料油FOB价格2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012014016018001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾0.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures纸货与衍生品价格050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU主力2021202220232024050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU连二2021202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures燃料油现货价差010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-01新加坡高低硫价差201920202021202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油裂解价差-50-40-30-20-100102001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10新加坡高硫裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025-60-50-40-30-20-1001001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10西北欧3.5%裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025 进出口06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内燃料油进出口数据05000001000000150000020000002500000300000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油，不含生物柴油：出口数量合计：中国（月）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球高硫燃料油进出口数据05001000150020002500300035004000全球高硫进口数量周