5月美国销售报告：提前购买持续，等待关税全面影响显现

Restricted - External U.S. Autos & MobilityNEGATIVEU.S. Autos & MobilityDan Levy+1 212 526 3212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, USJosh Cho+1 212 526 7156joshua.cho@barclays.comBCI, US 1https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/jd-power-globaldata-forecast-may-20252https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-hikes-prices-mexico-produced-models-citing-tariffs-2025-05-07/•Pricing:We expect pricing to remain strong in 2Q, likely improved vs. 1Q. Somewhatsurprisingly OEMs have not yet raised prices to reflecttariffscosts. However, per JD Power1per-unit incentives were on track to decline in May (down ~7% m/m in May), which alsofollowed a sharp m/m decline in April. And while May ATPs (average transaction prices) weretracking down 1.3% m/m to $45.5k per JDP, this is nevertheless abovepre-tarifflevels - likelyreflecting the reduced incentives. Moreover, we have seen reports of OEMs such as Hyundaiplanning price raises, with Ford also citing plans to raise prices on its Mexican-madevehicles2.•Production:2Q NA production will likely be flattish q/q; in S&P's most recent estimaterevision they raised 2Q NA production estimates, now tracking +1% q/q. While D3 OEMsappear to be maintaining production volumes despitetariffheadwinds (F/GM NA productionexpected to be up q/q), we see some risks of lower production from OEMs with smaller USfootprints/less USMCA content (i.e. BMW, Mazda).•Inventory:Drawdown likely in 2Q as the remainder ofpre-tariffpre-buys flow through andOEMs choose not to increase inventory giventariffuncertainty. While gross stock was down amodest ~40k units m/m in May, it is down a more significant ~120k since the end of March,and ~240k units since February.May US SAAR summaryMay SAAR was 15.7mn units, inline with consensus in the 15.6-16.0mn range. The result wasdriven by a modest continued pull forward of sales ahead of expectedtariffdriven priceincreases - it is possible that accelerated demand is likely exhausted. Though Autotariffsarealready ineffect,OEMs have not yet raised prices to reflect their increased costs, thus allowingthe pre-buy to continue - albeit with incentives reduced. Retail sales were solid, likely up lowsingle digits % y/y, while fleet was more modest and likely flat or down low single digits %.Industry unit sales in May were +1.3% y/y on a headline basis. The D3 overall (+4.8%)outperformed the industry, with strong sales from Ford (+16%) and GM (+6%) more thanoffsettingcontinued Stellantis (covered by Henning Cosman) underperformance (-15%). GM'sstrong market share continued with 17.5% in May (though down from 18.1% inApril), continuing its run of robust share experienced since 2H24. Ford also posted robust share(14.9%), its best since Oct '21; as discussed post 1Q EPS, we believe Ford has an opportunity toincrease share as it capitalizes on its US manufacturing base (highest mix of US-assembledamongst mass market OEMs). Among the transplants, Toyota (+11%), Hyundai/Kia (+7%), andHonda (+7%) outperformed, while Nissan underperformed (-4%).Inventory declining...OEMs continuing production despitetariffsUS inventory ended May at 2.53mn units, down ~40k m/m, to the lowest point since Feb'24.Days Supply was flat at 46. Inventory remains within our expected "new normal" range of2.5mn-3.0mn units, though May DSO is somewhat artificially low given the strong sales month(with pull forward impact).D3 inventory remains relatively elevated (avg. DSO of ~59 days) vs. the industry. However, giventariffuncertainty the elevated inventory levels are now less of a concern, withtariffslikely tolead to inventory de-stock as production slows. For instance, Ford ended May with ~494k unitsof gross stock, its lowest level in over a year, and with DSO of 61, its lowest level in nearly 2yrs.2 Key Charts - May US Sales Report CardNote: Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai/Kia stocks are not covered by Barclays Research.US LV SAAR 6mo Moving Avg. w/ Auto SAAR Recession OverlayAvg.SAAR over last fourdecades ~15mn unitsGiven the elevated levels of sales the last several months we would have expected greaterinventory de-stock, especially as we expected to see declines in OEM productionpost-tariff.However, as we have heard in 1Q earnings, OEMs continue to maintain normal production, withlittle changes to production schedules for 2Q.3 FIGURE 1. May 2025 SAARSource: Motor Intelligence, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 2. US SAAR history89101112131415161718Units(mn)Note: 2025 data through MaySource: Motor Intelligence, Barclays Research4 June 2025 Source: Motor IntelligenceFIGURE 4. US sales mix by segment49%49%18%19%9%9%6%7%8%8%0%20%40%60%80%100%CUVPickupSource: Wards Source: Wards4 June 2025 Source: Motor IntelligenceFIGURE 16. Industry DSO time series10203040506070JanFebDSOSource: Motor Intelligence Source: Barclays Research, COX Automotive, Motor IntelligenceFIGURE 19. US monthly incentive % of ATP0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-