每周简报 第2卷 第19期：随着美中关税降低和暂停，美国经济衰退担忧缓解。4月零售销售超出预期；然而，尽管有一些提前支出，消费者支出在第二季度仍将减速。4月CPI数据显示几乎没有关税导致的价格压力的迹象。

Restricted - External U.S. Consumer FinanceNEUTRALU.S. Consumer FinanceTerry Ma, CFA+1 212 526 7965terry.ma@barclays.comBCI, USJulia Gul+1 212 526 9132julia.gul@barclays.comBCI, USCordelia R Deng+1 212 526 7625cordeliar.deng@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. 90+ Day DQ by Loan TypeNote: Fed data is based on a sample size of only 5% of the population.Source: New York Fed, Barclays ResearchRecent Research•UWMC: Takeaways from UWM Live 2025, 05/16/2025. UWMC unveiled several AI technologies,aiming to position brokers to maintain and/or grow share in a higher refi mix environment.UWM continues to focus on growing the channel and strengthening loyalty, and notesbuilding an in-house servicing platform should also benefit refi recapture potential.•Takeaways from 1Q25 Mortgage Insurance Earnings, 05/12/2025. We recap key takeawaysfrom the MI earnings. Credit was better q/q as 1H is seasonally stronger but remains a keyconcern for investors particularly due to vintage seasoning and macro. Claim rates shouldremain lower due to embedded home equity.•ESNT: 1Q25 Earnings Review: Modest Top-Line and Opex Misses; Management Expects DDReturns, 05/12/2025. Adj EPS of $1.63 missed BARC $1.70/Street $1.66 due to lower NPE andhigher opex. Provisions came in higher from new DQs (+6.4% vs. BARC) while DQ rate came inmodestly worse at 2.19%, +47bps y/y vs. 4Q24 +47bps y/y and 3Q24 +33bps y/y. Managementremains confident in low ultimate claims.•COF: Notes From Across the Pond, 05/09/2025. We hosted COF for investor meetings inLondon this week. Consumer health was in focus, but 1Q results showed no cracks. The DFSacquisition is on the verge of closing and we remain bullish on the potential accretion plus LTmultiple re-rating.•AL: Notes from Across the Pond, 05/09/2025. We hosted AL for investor meetings in Londonthis week. We came away more positive on the company's ability to manage throughtariffrisk. In addition, recent insurance recoveries should create optionality for capital actions, inour view.•AXP: Notes from Across the Pond, 05/09/2025. We hosted AXP for investor meetings in Londonthis week. Overall, we came away with a reinforced view that AXP's premium card memberbase should help the company manage through any macro weakness.•AER: Notes From Across the Pond, 05/09/2025. We hosted AER for investor meetings inLondon this week. Overall, we came away more positive on the company, its ability tomanage throughtariffimpact, and the strength of its balance sheet. 2 Monthly Data•April 2025 Card Trust Results: M/M Change in NCOs Better Than Seasonality While DQsSlightly Worse, 05/15/2025. For our credit card trust composite, the average m-o-m change inNCOs (down 19bps) came in better than seasonality (+8bps) and BARC (+6bps). DQs (down5bps) were slightly worse than seasonality (down 9bps) but roughly in line with BARC (down6bps m/m).°AXP: April Credit Data, 05/15/2025. NCOs and DQs beat BARC estimates. The m/m change inDQs came in worse than normal seasonality while the y/y change was stable. Total loangrowth was roughly stable at +10.9% y/y vs. +10.4% y/y last month.°SYF: April Credit Data, 05/15/2025. DQs and NCOs beat BARC. DQs were roughly in line withnormal seasonality and they continue to be lower y/y. Loan growth was down 2.1% y/y,consistent with the y/y decline last month.°COF: April Credit Data, 05/15/2025. DQs and NCOs beat BARC across the board. Card DQsimproved y/y forfifthconsecutive month and the m/m change came in better thanseasonality. Auto DQs improved y/y for the 9th consecutive month.°DFS: April Credit Data, 05/15/2025. DQs were better than BARC while NCOs were worse.Both DQs and NCOs were lower y/y in April. Loan growth was down 0.2% y/y vs. down 0.5%y/y last month.°BFH: April Credit Data, 05/13/2025. DQs and NCOs were both lower y/y in April, with DQ'sperforming better than normal seasonality on a m/m basis. Loan balances were down~1.0% y/y, vs. down ~2.0% y/y last month.•OMF: April Trust Credit Data, 05/14/2025. We estimate aggregate trust DQs came in at 2.32%,implying up 1bps mm/m and up 33bps y/y (vs. +29bps y/y last month). We estimate NCOs of7.17%, down 3bps y/y (vs. +43bps y/y last month).•FAF: April Monthly Title Order Counts, 05/13/2025. Closed orders were +7.5% y/y (vs. 4.4% inMar) mostly due to refi (+56.0% y/y) and commercial (+7.8%); purchase remains weaker at-6.6%. Open orders were worse at -7.7% m/m vs. '15-'19 avg of +6.1% as purch, refi, andcommercial were all down m/m but improved y/y at +3.7%. 3 Recent News/Events•COF/DFS: Acquisition Completed, 05/18/2025.•COF: Capital One to Pay $425MM for Litigation, 05/17/2025. COF is expected to pay $425MM tosettle the litigation over savings accounts.•UWMC: UWM Launched 2 Major AI-Driven Technologies at its Annual UWM Live Event,05/15/2025. See links for LEO (Loan Estimate Optimizer) and Mia (LoanOfficerAssistant).•NAVI: New Notes, 05/15/2025. NAVI is issuing new $500MM notes due 2032 at 7.875%. Thecompany plans to use the proceeds for general corpora