全球奢侈品：4月瑞士手表出口——美国关税一次性提前拉动；大中华区持续疲软

Swiss watch exports grew +18.2% YoY in Apr’25, with total sales at 2.5 billion Swissfrancs.The month’s data exhibits a significant pull-forward in exports to the US, whichgrew by +149.2% YoY to 851.9m CHF.Excluding the US, exports would have declinedby -6.4% instead.There was one less Swiss working day in Apr’25. Adjusting for thiswould see exports ex. the US declining by approx. -1% YoY instead.Geographically, export growth was led by the USA (+149.2%), Japan (+1.9%) andthe UK (+1.6%).Excluding the US, Japan and the UK were the only significant exportdestinations to report growth. Singapore (-9.2%), China (-30.5%) and Hong Kong (-22.8%)reported sharp declines in exports. Exports to Greater China took another leg down inApr’25: exports by value have continued to decline every month since Jan’24.Across price points, we see a heavy tariff-induced skew towards top price points.Total export values for watches priced above CHF3,000 grew by +22.9% in Apr’25.Watches priced below CHF200 saw export values grow by +10.4%. Watches pricedbetween CHF200 to CHF500 saw export values fall by -1.2%, while those priced betweenCHF500 to CHF3,000 saw exports grow by +5.2%.The spread in performance reflectsunderlying US demand by price point.The data suggests that Swiss exports to the US inthe CHF200 to CHF500 range are a negligible portion of total global exports to this pricerange, while the US remains a key market for exports priced below CHF300 and aboveCHF3,000. We note that most smartwatches are priced in the CHF200 to CHF500 range(see EssilorLuxottica: The digital disruption of glasses).In terms of material, bimetallic materials exhibit the strongest pull-forward skew.Bimetallic watches saw total export value grow by +44.5% in Apr’25, followed by preciousmetal (+23.4%), and steel (+13.8%). Other materials (-9.1%) and metals (-17.1%) bothdeclined. Beyond the tariff pull-forward, export values also reflect the impact of high goldprice inflation: bimetallic — i.e. gold-steel — volumes grew by +31.8% while precious metalvolumes grew by +9.5%, indicating double-digit YoY export price inflation.This month’s data highlights the uncertainty caused by shifting US tariff policies.Fortunately, US tariff policies have stepped back from the worst-case scenario thatcompanies have preemptively worked to avoid (see Global Luxury Goods: Pulling back fromthe brink in FY25e). However, the significant pull-forward in exports observed in Apr’25 willreduce data clarity in subsequent months. It is also unclear how much of declining exportsto Greater China represent a further deterioration in underlying demand or a temporary re-prioritization of export volumes to the US to meet tariff deadlines. We expect companiesto respond to this uncertainty by hunkering down, reducing investment, and cutting costs.This will weigh on global economic growth; we believe 1H25e will be tough. However,underlying demand in the US and China could also be better than the data implies, evenas easing trade tensions provide additional relief. We remain constructive on 2H25e.Wecontinue to expect relative resilience in the most desirable brands (Rolex, PatekPhilippe, Cartier, etc.).These will remain top-of-mind for consumers. Brands lower downthe pecking order will need to work harder to recapture consumer attention.www.bernsteinresearch.com INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe recently raised our FY25e industry organic growth forecasts from -2% to 0% (see Global Luxury Goods: Pullingback from the brink in FY25e).We maintain our view that 1H25e will be tough — 2Q25e will bear the full brunt of policyvolatility/uncertainty — but become slightly more constructive on 2H25e as international relations pull back from the ‘BlackSwan’ scenario we initially feared.We favor companies with clear idiosyncratic tailwinds.These include brands that are top-of-mind for increasinglydiscerning consumers in their respective categories: Hermès (leather goods) and Richemont (jewellery). In a similar vein, wecontinue to keep an eye on Moncler (outerwear) to see if it can remain ‘hot’ within its traditional summer low season.We remain constructive on 2H25e.The USA’s ‘Liberation Day' shock forced a reset of industry growth expectations. A gradualexit from international trade tensions gives us more reason to add beta to our portfolio, with an eye on a recovery starting in2H25. In this context, Burberry and LVMH offer a flavor of turnarounds and self-help.BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingCFR.SWOCHFUHR.SWOCHFRMS.FPOEURMC.FPOEUREDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedCFR.SW base year is 2025;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.GLOBAL LUXURY GOODS 26 May2025TTMAdjusted EPSAdjusted P/E (x)ClosingPriceRel.PriceTargetPerf.2024A2025E2026E2024A2025E2026E158.10190.00(0.5)%EUR6.396.617.2426.525.623.4140.95160.00(38.1)%CHF3.713.474.0738.040.734.62,389.002,800.00(1.6)%EUR43.8745.1554.2454.552.944.0483.45600.00(47.1)%EUR26.0724.1726.2018.520.018.