杰富瑞全球医疗会议第一天：与CNTA管理层炉边谈话/晚餐的关键要点

Jose Lora, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (332) 236-6815 | jlora@jefferies.comYifan Xu, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8057 | yxu4@jefferies.comClara Dong, Ph.D. * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2432 | ydong1@jefferies.comHangfei Fu, Ph.D. * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7562 | hfu@jefferies.com advances through IND-enabling studies. Specific indications for further development haven't beendisclosed.Please see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionCentessa PharmaceuticalsCentessa was initially founded as a holding company and now has three distinct programs across various therapeutic areas in different clinicaldevelopment stages. ORX750, a highly potent OX2two additional OX2R agonists ORX142 and ORX489 for neuro/psych indications and oncology programs that are based on a proprietary LockBodytechnology platform, one in Phase 1 development and the other in preclinical stage.Company Valuation/RisksCentessa PharmaceuticalsOur $27 PT is based mainly on ORX750, a highly potent OX2market. Success in the two early stage oncology programs could provide further upside to our valuation. Risks include clinical, regulatory, commercial,competitive, and financing.Jazz Pharmaceuticals plcWe derive our price target on JAZZ from a DCF valuation. Risks include Xyrem-Xywav switch does not go as well as expected, AVDL launches FT218and quickly gains market share, JAZZ fails to delever and continues operating with high leverage, and none of the upcoming 5 spasticity read-outsare positive.Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.Valuation:We arrive at our PT by applying a target 10x Core P/E to our Core EPS estimate for FY2/26. We derive our 10x target from the historicalfive-year average.Risks:Two of the biggest sources of growth in our earnings model are Entyvio for ulcerative colitis and immunoglobulin. If the competitive situationwere to deteriorate for these products, Takeda's revenues and profits could fall short of our estimates. Moreover, regulatory changes affecting pricesin big markets such as the United States could have a negative impact on company profits.Analyst Certification:I, Kelly Shi, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Jose Lora, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Yifan Xu, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Clara Dong, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Hangfei Fu, Ph.D., certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationbased in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulationsmay prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervalsas appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedPlease see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. R agonist targeting sleep disorders, Ph2 studies in NT1, NT2 and IH. The company also hasR agonist that has shown compelling efficacy and safety data and is targeting a largeJune 4, 2025 15:50 P.M.3 Recommendation