固定收益部市场日报

PLEASE READ THE AUTHORCERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEThe Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025We hope you found our commentaries and ideas helpful. We seek toelevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highlyappreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “TheAsset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025”.Thank you for yoursupport!This morning, NWDEVL 4.8 Perp/NWDEVL 30s down 5.0-5.6pts. NWDEVL4.125/5.25 Perps up 3.3-3.8pts after moving lower last Friday. BNKEA 34swidened 5-10bps amid mixed flows on spillover of NWDEVL Perps’ coupondeferral. Asia IGs widened 2-5bps. ADSEZ 27-41s up 0.1-0.3pt, Adani Port’sboard approved the buyback of USD bonds last Saturday. See below.NWDEVL: A negative surprise. See below.China Economy:Mild improvement after US-China tariff truce.CMBIexpects USD/RMB rates might fluctuate within7.20-7.25 in the short termbefore a moderate decline to 7.12-7.17 if a trade deal is reached. See belowfor comments from CMBI economic research.Trading desk comments交易台市场观点Last Fri evening,NWD announced the deferral of coupon for 4 of its 5outstanding perps. At Fri close, NWDEVL 4.8 Perp and NWDEVL 29-31sclosedunchanged to 2.2pts lower WoW.NWDEVL 4.125/NWDEVL6.15/NWDEVL 5.25/NWDEVL 6.25 Perps and NWDEVL27-29s closed 6.4-37.3pts lower WoW. See comments below. On IG primary, the new CMINLEFloat28/30 closed unchanged from ROs amid light flows.In KR,KOROIL/KHFC Float 28-30s closed unchanged to 1bp wider. LGENSO 34-35s and PKX 30s were 2-5bps wider. On the other hand, HYUELE/DAESEC26-30s were unchanged to 2bps tighter. In Chinese and HK IGs, BABA 31-35s/MEITUA 29-30s were 2-5bps wider. The long end of XIAOMI/TENCNT49-61s were 0.4-0.9pt lower (1-6bps wider). CKHH/HKLSP/HKAA/MTRC 30-35s were 1-3bps wider. In financials, BNKEA 28s tightened 8bps. However,NANYAN/DAHSIN 33-34s widened 3-5bps. BBLTB 33-40s were 1-4bpswider.In AU/JP,CBAAU/NAB 30-36s were unchanged to 2bps wider.SMBCAC/NTT/SUMIBK/NOMURA 26-30s were 1-3bps wider. In insurancehybrids, SUMILF/DAIL Perps and NIPLIF 54-55s were unchanged to 0.1pthigher. In AT1s, the new HSBC 7.05 Perp closed unchanged from RO at paramid mixed flows with PB buying vs institutional selling. HSBC 6.95/BNP8/SOCGEN 8/UBS 7 Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. In Chineseproperties, CHIOLI 29-34s were up 0.2-0.5pt. On the other hand, SHUION26s declined 0.2-0.5pt. Outside properties, WESCHI 26sdeclined0.8pt.CMBI Credit CommentaryFixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 (852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk(852) 3900 0801JerryWang(852)3761 8919CMBI Fixed Incomefis@cmbi.com.hk 2In SE Asia, ADSEZ 27-41s were up 0.4-0.8pt. ADTIN 36s/ARENRJ 39s/ADGREG 42s were up 0.4-0.6pt. Overthe weekend, Adani Ports’ board approved buyback of its USD bonds up to USD1bn over the next six financialquarters. See comments below. VEDLN 29-33s were down 0.2-0.3pt. See our comments on30 May’25. VLLPM27-29s lowered 0.2-0.8pt.In LGFVs, there were two way interests on USD names such as CQXHUC 7.5 27s/ZOUCAO 6.98 27s and CNHnames such as SDGAOC 6.9 27s/BXCAIJ 7 28s. In SOE perps, CHCOMU/AVIILC Perps were 0.1-0.2pt higher.LastTradingDay’s Top MoversTop PerformersPriceChangeTop UnderperformersPriceChangeNWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/3053.71.7NWDEVL 6.15 PERP26.0-32.6NWDEVL 3 3/4 01/14/3152.01.4NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP19.9-17.7NWDEVL 4.8 PERP26.31.0NWDEVL 4 1/8 PERP18.9-10.6PERTIJ 4.7 07/30/4979.40.9NWDEVL 8 5/8 02/08/2862.0-6.1NWDEVL 4 1/8 07/18/2954.20.9NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP22.1-5.2MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾Macro–S&P (-0.01%), Dow (+0.13%) and Nasdaq (-0.32%) were mixed on last Friday. Trump said he will speakto China's President Xi and hopefully work out their differences on trade and tariffs. UST yield retreatedonlastFriday, 2/5/10/30yield at 3.89%/3.96%/4.41%/4.92%.Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点NWDEVL:A negative surpriseCoupon deferral at a sensitive timeNWD announced coupon deferral for 4 out of it 5 outstanding perps.The amount of coupon payment to bedeferred totaled USD77.2mn.The timing of the deferral is a surprise to us given the media reports on thepositive progresses of loan refinancing and target to close the refinancing soon. The next coupon payment forNWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP will be on 7 Sep’25 with a coupon payment of USD40.6mn.In view of thelatestdevelopments, the coupon payment of NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP will likely be deferred.The key is whether the deferral is surprise to banksWe have been arguing since the discussions of the loan refinancing that NWD will not be able to redeem itsperps before the completion of loan refinancing. However, we do not expect NWD to defer coupon paymentsgiven the progress in loan refinancing as per media reports.Indeed, NWD faced the same window to defercoupon payments in Dec’24 but chose to continue the coupon payments then.Additionally, NWD justannounced on 30 May’25 that it had achieved over 95% of its contract sales and NCD target.To us, the keyquestion is whether the coupon deferral will help convince banks to commit to loan refi