中国经济：中美关税休战后的轻微改善

Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hkBingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hkSource: NBS, CMBIGMSource: NBS,CMBIGM253035404550556065702019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/07Manufacturing PMIService PMIindex(%)353739414345474951535520192020202120222023PMI of large enterprisesPMI of medium enterprisesPMI of small enterprisesindex(%) 2023/01Construction PMI PLEASE READ THEANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGESource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure4:Inventory IndexSource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure6:Ex-factory Price IndexSource:Wind, CMBIGM303540455055201920202021Inventory of productsInventory of materialsPurchase volume of materialsindex(%)404550556065201920202021Manufacturingindex(%) Source:Wind, CMBIGMFigure3:Export Order Index and Import IndexSource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure5:Material Purchase Price IndexSource:Wind, CMBIGM283338434853201920202021Export order indexindex(%)1525354555657585201920202021Manufacturingindex(%) PLEASE READ THEANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGESource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure10:Employment IndexSource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure12:Passenger flowSource:Wind, CMBIGM30354045505560201920202021Manufacturingindex(%)0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.820192020Passenger traffic flow (LHS)Daily metro passenger flow in 12 major cities (RHS)(bn) Source:Wind, CMBIGMFigure9:Composite Output IndexSource:Wind, CMBIGMFigure11:Supply Delivery IndexSource:Wind, CMBIGM4045505560201820192020Composite output index(LHS)index(%)303540455055201920202021Manufacturingindex(%) PLEASE READ THEANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGESource:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM PLEASE READ THEANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content ofthis research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer;and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in thecode of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOTRATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel:(852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluateparticular investmentsand strategies, and encourages investors to consult with a professional financial advisor in order to make their own investment decisions.This report or any information contained herein, have been prepared by theCMBIGM, solely forthe purpose of supplying information to the clients ofCMBIGMor its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest in