原油周度报告

SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesCONTENTS宏观02原油：轻仓试多，正套入场利率、贵金属与油价走势比较海外服务业数据中国信用数据 价格及价差基差月差内外盘原油价差净持仓变化 供应OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览美国页岩油产量 需求欧美炼厂开工率中国炼厂开工率 库存美欧各类油品库存亚太各类油品库存 综述 2 观点综述01 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures观点综述：轻仓试多，正套入场我们的观点：◆二次探底接近尾声，关注反弹；◆下半年仍有机会趋势上涨，如Brent反弹至80美元/桶以上；我们的逻辑：◆当前金油比已持续飙升，且累计跌幅按照2024年原油需求与全球经济波动之间的关系充分计价衰退，短期存在超跌风险，不是最佳空配标的，因此即便下跌也难破前低。OPEC+实际增产仍存变数，利空或有限；◆长期看，油价存在几点潜在利好，包括：美国制裁下伊朗原油供应大幅收缩、主要地区库存绝对值较低、OPEC+减产、美国页岩油供应增幅放缓等。一旦宏观情绪企稳，趋势反弹概率较大。这种情况，更可能出现在年中或者下半年；◆中国本轮备货幅度较大，对冲部分地区需求收缩，全球原油表观库存季节性下滑；风险提示：◆全球经济、地缘、气候等宏观面不确定性；OPEC+内部分歧引发的价格战；美国页岩油技术再突破。我们的策略：◆空单平仓止盈，左侧试多；◆一旦衰退预期修正、内需利空释放透彻，年中附近关注抄底加仓；◆关注逢低布局月间正套； 4 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures美债长端利率大幅波动，金油比高位震荡资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究-2-101234WTI美国:国债收益率:10年-1年（右轴）02040608010012014016070758085909510010511011512013-0814-0114-0614-1115-0415-0916-0216-0716-1217-0517-1018-0318-0819-0119-0619-1120-0420-0921-0221-0721-1222-0522-1023-0323-0824-0124-0624-1125-04European Crude Dated Brent Spot美元指数（右轴）0102030405060Comex黄金/Brent SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国月度出口量一览2020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-102025-01原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿尔及利亚:当月值0204060801001201402020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-102025-01原油:产量(基于直接来源):赤道几内亚:当月值05001000150020002500300035004000450050002020-072020-11原油:产量(基于直接来源):伊拉克:当月值2020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-072023-112024-032024-072024-112025-03原油:产量(基于直接来源):尼日利亚:当月值0200040006000800010000120002020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-042024-072024-102025-01原油:产量(基于直接来源):沙特阿拉伯:当月值05001000150020002500300035002020-072020-102021-01原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿联酋:当月值资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28哈萨克斯坦原油出口0500010000150002000025000300002023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W02Kb020004000600080001000012000140002023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28Kb利比亚原油出口2023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28加蓬原油出口0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28Kb尼日利亚原油出口0200040006000800010000120002023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W02Kb资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28阿尔及利亚+刚果共和国+赤道几内亚情况2023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28巴西原油出口0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002023-W452023-W472023-W492023-W512024-W012024-W032024-W052024-W072024-W092024-W112024-W132024-W152024-W172024-W192024-W212024-W232024-W252024-W272024-W292024-W312024-W332024-W352024-W372024-W39KbOPEC+(excluding Brazil)资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures非OPEC+周度出口量一览（含预测值)2023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28加拿大原油出口010000200003000040000500006000070000800002023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W16Kb美国原油出口2023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W28挪威原油出口010002000300040005000600070002023-W452023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W