原油周度报告

SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesCONTENTS宏观02原油：逢低布多，三季度或仍有机会挑战80美元利率、贵金属与油价走势比较海外服务业数据中国信用数据 价格及价差基差月差内外盘原油价差净持仓变化 供应OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览美国页岩油产量 需求欧美炼厂开工率中国炼厂开工率 库存美欧各类油品库存亚太各类油品库存 综述 2 观点综述01 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures观点综述：逢低布多，三季度或仍有机会挑战80美元我们的观点：◆Brent、WTI三季度仍有机会挑战80美元/桶，SC或挑战580元/桶；◆中长期看，油价下行压力较大，年内Brent、WTI或考验50美元/桶，SC或考验420元/桶;我们的逻辑：◆撇开地缘、贸易战两大不确定性，三季度中上旬偏多，主要基于OPEC+增产不及预期、美国页岩油产量下滑、全球库存中枢偏低,去库较难证伪。其中，7月OPEC会议决定8月增产54.8万桶/日略超预期，短期或构成轻度情绪利空，但超出预期41.1万桶/日的规模不大，对旺季合约实质性边际影响有限；◆关注宏观面市场风险偏好改善；◆中长期看空，主要基于OPEC+、巴西、圭亚那、挪威等增产下长期过剩压力较大，累库较难证伪;风险提示：全球经济、地缘、气候等宏观面不确定性；OPEC+内部分歧引发的价格战；美国页岩油技术再突破；宏观情绪变化。我们的策略：◆单边短期逢低买入，波段做多；长期逢高布空，趋势做空；◆正套清仓止盈，不宜反套； 4 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures美债长端利率大幅波动，金油比反弹资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究-2-101234WTI美国:国债收益率:10年-1年（右轴）02040608010012014016070758085909510010511011512013-0914-0214-0714-1215-0515-1016-0316-0817-0117-0617-1118-0418-0919-0219-0719-1220-0520-1021-0321-0822-0122-0622-1123-0423-0924-0224-0724-1225-05European Crude Dated Brent Spot美元指数（右轴）0102030405060 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国月度出口量一览2020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-122025-03原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿尔及利亚:当月值0204060801001202020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-122025-03原油:产量(基于直接来源):赤道几内亚:当月值05001000150020002500300035004000450050002020-092021-01原油:产量(基于直接来源):伊拉克:当月值2021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-05原油:产量(基于直接来源):尼日利亚:当月值0200040006000800010000120002020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-122025-03原油:产量(基于直接来源):沙特阿拉伯:当月值05001000150020002500300035002020-092020-122021-03原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿联酋:当月值资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2024-W012024-W052024-W092024-W132024-W172024-W212024-W252024-W292024-W332024-W372024-W412024-W452024-W492025-W012025-W052025-W092025-W132025-W172025-W212025-W252025-W292025-W332025-W35沙特原油出口050001000015000200002500030000350002024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W242025-W272025-W302025-W332025-W35Kb俄罗斯原油出口0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W16Kb2024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W242025-W272025-W302025-W332025-W35科威特原油出口02000400060008000100001200014000160002024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W242025-W272025-W302025-W332025-W35Kb阿曼原油出口0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W13Kb资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W242025-W272025-W302025-W332025-W35阿尔及利亚+刚果共和国+赤道几内亚情况2024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W242025-W272025-W302025-W332025-W35巴西原油出口0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002024-W012024-W032024-W052024-W072024-W092024-W112024-W132024-W152024-W172024-W192024-W212024-W232024-W252024-W272024-W292024-W312024-W332024-W352024-W372024-W392024-W412024-W432024-W452024-W47KbOPEC+(excluding Brazil)资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures非OPEC+周度出口量一览（含预测值)2024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W242025-W272025-W302025-W332025-W35加拿大原油出口010000200003000040000500006000070000800002024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W24Kb美国原油出口2024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-W182025-W212025-W242025-W272025-W302025-W332025-W35挪威原油出口010002000300040005000600070002024-W012024-W042024-W072024-W102024-W132024-W162024-W192024-W222024-W252024-W282024-W312024-W342024-W372024-W402024-W432024-W462024-W492024-W522025-W032025-W062025-W092025-W122025-W152025-